STATE OF PLAY AHEAD OF THE MAY 21, 2022 FEDERAL ELECTION
THE NUMBERS:
Home of Representatives (151 members)
Discover the Federal Election 2022 on Channel 7 or hobble it for free on 7plus >>
23 Liberal Nationwide Occasion of Queensland
43 Liberal Occasion of Australia
10 The Nationals
76 in total for coalition authorities)
68 Australian Labor Occasion
1 Australian Greens (Adam Bandt)
1 Centre Alliance (Rebekha Sharkie)
1 United Australia Occasion (Craig Kelly)
3 neutral (Zali Steggall, Andrew Wilkie, Helen Haines)
1 Katter’s Australian Occasion (Bob Katter)
WHAT’S HAPPENED ELECTORALLY SINCE 2019?
Redistribution: WA has lost a seat (Stirling, held by the Liberals) and Victoria has won a seat (Hawke, which is notionally a Labor develop).
By-elections: Groom modified into retained by the LNP. Eden-Monaro modified into retained by Labor.
Hughes MP Craig Kelly (elected as a Liberal in 2019) joined Clive Palmer’s United Australia Occasion.
Labor modified leader from Bill Shorten to Anthony Albanese.
At disclose and territory elections, Labor retained authorities in NT, ACT, Queensland and WA, and the Liberals had been returned in Tasmania. Liberals lost authorities to Labor in SA.
So-called “teal” independents – operating a properly-funded advertising and marketing campaign on climate replace, integrity and girls’s safety – enjoy won a excessive profile across a name of Liberal-held seats.
WHAT’S NEEDED FOR LABOR TO WIN?
Labor holds 68 seats nonetheless with the unique seat of Hawke begins the election with a notional 69. It wants 76 seats for a majority, a obtain develop of seven. Given the largely revolutionary policy platforms of the independents, a tied vote (as occurred in 2010) would likely result in a Labor minority authorities.
WHAT’S NEEDED FOR THE COALITION TO WIN?
The Liberal-Nationwide coalition begins with 75 seats after the axing of the WA electorate of Stirling. It could most likely most likely presumably presumably presumably want a obtain one-seat develop so that you just might possibly abet authorities.
THE OTHER PARTIES
The Nationals are broadly anticipated to abet existing seats.
Clive Palmer’s United Australia Occasion might presumably presumably possibly also abet Hughes, nonetheless is no longer anticipated to develop any utterly different lower dwelling seats.
The Greens are anticipated to abet Melbourne nonetheless no longer develop any utterly different lower dwelling seats.
WHAT RECORDS COULD THE ELECTION SET?
Defeat for Labor incessantly is the fourth successive loss and mean the ALP has obtained majority authorities highest as soon as in the past 10 elections.
If Scott Morrison wins, he incessantly is the considerable incumbent high minister to know two elections in a row since John Howard in 2004. Rudd, Gillard, Abbott and Turnbull had been all eradicated by their occasions.
A minority parliament might presumably presumably possibly be the considerable since 2010 and the third since 1943.
TARGET SEATS
Liberals – Hughes, Gilmore, Parramatta, Hunter (NSW), Lyons (Tasmania), Corangamite (Victoria), Lingiari (NT).
Labor – Pearce, Hasluck, Swan (WA), Chisholm and Hawke (Victoria), Bass, Braddon (Tasmania), Brisbane, Longman, Leichhardt and Ryan (Queensland), Boothby (SA), Reid, Bennelong, Robertson (NSW).