Bangkok, Thailand – Thailand’s Constitutional Court is set to decide whether to remove suspended Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra from office over a controversial phone call with Cambodia’s former leader, in a ruling that could deal a further blow to the embattled Shinawatra dynasty and plunge the Southeast Asian kingdom into fresh political turmoil.
An unfavourable verdict for Paetongtarn on Friday would make her the fifth prime minister since 2008 to be stripped of office by Thailand’s judges, who critics say defend the interests of the country’s royalist-military establishment.
The move could also potentially pave the way for early elections.
Friday’s ruling is also the second in three high-stakes court cases against Paetongtarn, 39, and her father, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.
The 76-year-old billionaire, who is a hero to the country’s rural poor and who was ousted in a military coup in 2006, dodged a jail sentence last week when he was acquitted of insulting the country’s powerful monarchy.
But he still faces another case relating to his return to Thailand in 2023, after 16 years in self-imposed exile, which could land him back in prison.
Even if Paetongtarn survives, analysts said the saga, as well as the failure of her Pheu Thai party-led coalition to deliver on key economic pledges, has left the Shinawatra brand in peril.
“I think that the Shinawatra brand is done for,” said Napon Jatusripitak, visiting fellow and acting coordinator of the Thailand Studies Programme at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.
“Pheu Thai depends very much on the Shinawatra legacy. … Even the charismatic leadership that Thaksin is often associated with has been chipped away by Paetongtarn’s naivete that has been put on public spectacle on a global scale,” he said, referring to her leaked conversation with former Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen.
‘A political case’
During the call, which took place after deadly border clashes between Thai and Cambodian forces in May, Paetongtarn was heard kowtowing to Hun Sen, a longtime friend of her father’s, and calling him “uncle” while criticising a senior Thai army commander and describing him as an “opponent”.
The comments caused a public outcry in Thailand, with some Thais accusing her of treason.
Paetongtarn apologised for her remarks, but the Constitutional Court took up a petition that accused her of ethical misconduct and suspended her pending a review of the case.
“Judicial intervention has long shaped Thailand’s politics,” said Khemthong Tonsakulrungruang, constitutional law scholar at Chulalongkorn University, noting how the courts had also intervened to topple Thaksin-aligned prime ministers in 2008 and to bar his sister, Yingluck, from office after a coup in 2014.
“Whether [Paetongtarn] survives the court’s judgement or not, the outcome will not hinge on legal arguments but on political instructions,” Khemthong said. “This has never been a matter of law. It is, and always has been, a political case.”
It does not help Paetongtarn that the clashes – which ended in a Malaysia-brokered ceasefire after dozens were killed on both sides of the border – have also taken place at a time when Pheu Thai’s popularity has been plummeting.
In its rocky two years in government, the party has been unable to reset the economy or drive through key policies, including raising the minimum wage, legalising casinos and completing a much-touted cash handout programme.
Public anger has been seething, too, over Pheu Thai’s decision to strike a deal with royalist, military-backed parties to take office in 2023.
During that year’s vote, Pheu Thai had come in second to the progressive youth-led Move Forward Party, but the latter was prevented from forming a government by the conservative-controlled Senate.
Pheu Thai, then, backed away from a campaign pledge not to ally with the royalist military establishment and cobbled together an alliance with the same forces that had previously toppled its elected governments.
It was that same power-sharing deal that saw Thaksin return to Thailand.
Upon his arrival, the politician, who had been sentenced in absentia to eight years on charges of corruption, was sent to jail to serve his sentence. But his term was reduced by King Maha Vajiralongkorn to one year, and during his first night, he was transferred to a hospital on medical grounds.
He spent six months in a hospital suite, after which he was released on parole.
Now, the Supreme Court is to rule in September on whether Thaksin’s hospital stay was justified, in a case that could see him sent back to prison.
“Thaksin had the moral high ground of being overthrown, from being democratically elected, but he gave up that moral high ground by making a deal with the establishment,” said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a professor and senior fellow of the Institute of Security and International Studies at Chulalongkorn University’s Faculty of Political Science.
“He’s given up, he’s given in, and I think that the Shinawatra brand now is politically spent.”
But it’s not just the Shinawatras that the conservative forces are after, Thitinan said.
“They’re going after any threat that they see that wants to institute reforms and wants to modernise Thailand. And this is why Thailand has been stuck for the last two decades. Until Thailand can get out of this straightjacket, whereby elected governments get overthrown, through manipulation, subversion, while the autocratic forces that do the overthrowing cannot get elected, it will remain so,” he added.
‘A real-life Squid Game’
If Paetongtarn is removed on Friday, Thailand could again be in for a period of prolonged uncertainty.
That is because the current constitution, drafted under military supervision, allows only politicians who had been nominated for prime minister by their parties before the 2023 elections to take power.
Pheu Thai may put up their final eligible candidate for premier – Chaikasem Nitisiri, a Thaksin loyalist and former justice minister.
Other candidates come from the conservative parties, including Anutin Charnvirakul of the Bhumjaithai Party and Prayuth Chan-ocha, formerly of the United Thai Nation (UTN) Party, who led the 2014 coup and then ruled Thailand for nine years. Prayuth is currently a member of the Privy Council, and he would need to step down to return to politics.
If lawmakers are not able to agree on a new government, then a snap election may have to be called.
But Napon of the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute said he believes the royalist-military establishment could be manoeuvring to install a new coalition with Pheu Thai as a junior partner under a conservative leadership, despite the party bringing the most seats.
The favourable ruling in Thaksin’s royal insult case “could be a sign, a gesture of goodwill that a conservative establishment in Thailand is still willing to work with the Shinawatras, but in a limited capacity,” he said.
“They could end up removing Paetongtarn as prime minister, but allow the formation of a new government with Pheu Thai, with Thaksin’s party in the equation. Pheu Thai could accept that kind of arrangement given that Thaksin still has a pending case pertaining to his hospital stay. In the worst case scenario, he could be sent back to serve his time in prison. That could end up being used as leverage to force Pheu Thai back into an unequal power-sharing arrangement with the conservatives once again,” he added.
The continued conservative stranglehold on power has dismayed millions of voters, especially young Thais who say their votes and their aspirations for a greater stake in their country’s future have been ignored.
“Thai democracy exists largely on paper,” Pannika Wanich, a former Move Forward legislator who has been given a lifetime ban from politics, told Al Jazeera.
“Thai politics resembles a real-life Squid Game. Prime ministers are eliminated one after another until the game master gets the player they want. The rules are rigged – and the normal principles of democracy don’t apply.”