Today, 127 million Bangladeshis will head to the polls in what is being described as the most consequential democratic exercise in the nation’s 55-year history.
After 18 months of interim rule, a radical constitutional overhaul, and the dramatic dismantling of a decade-and-a-half-old political dynasty, the 13th Parliamentary Election, marks the final step in the transition that began with the “July Uprising” of 2024.
This election is running concurrently with a high-stakes National Referendum on the July Charter, a package of constitutional reforms designed to permanently ‘de-autocratise’ the state.
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With the long-dominant Awami League (AL) officially barred from the ballot and the recent death of BNP matriarch Khaleda Zia, the political vacuum
has been filled by a volatile mix of veteran nationalists, resurgent Islamists, and the student-led “Generation Z” activists who sparked the revolution.
As the nation holds its breath, a few individuals stand at the centre of the storm.
Dr. Muhammad Yunus
Since taking the oath as Chief Adviser on August 8, 2024, the Nobel Laureate has transformed from a global “Banker to the Poor” into a ‘guardian of the transition’.
Yunus’s role in this election is unprecedented. Unlike previous caretaker heads, he did not just hold the seat; he overhauled the state.
Under his leadership, the National Consensus Commission drafted the July Charter, which voters will decide on this Thursday.
Yunus has spent the last year travelling to world capitals — Washington, Brussels, and Tokyo — securing deals to keep the economy afloat during the handover.
His legacy depends entirely on the next 72 hours. If the election
is marred by the mob violence that has plagued the interim period, his tenure will be viewed as a failed experiment.
If it succeeds, Yunus will likely return to the Yunus Centre, having secured a place in history as the man who saved Bangladeshi democracy from its darkest hour.
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Overseeing the electoral process is Chief Election Commissioner Dr AMM Nasir Uddin, whose role is widely regarded
as one of the most challenging in Bangladesh’s history.
Tarique Rahman
For seventeen years, Tarique Rahman was a voice on a flickering Zoom screen, directing the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) from a leafy suburb in London.
His return to Dhaka on December 25 was the largest mobilisation of people in the city’s history, effectively ending his era of “proxy leadership.”
Rahman enters the 2026 election as the presumptive Prime Minister-in-waiting, but he is a different man than the one who fled in 2008.
Eschewing the firebrand rhetoric of his youth, Rahman has focused on the BNP’s 31-Point Reform Agenda, positioned as a moderate alternative to both the revolutionary student groups and the Islamist right.
However, Rahman faces a dual challenge. Internally, he must integrate his ‘London Cabinet’ — the loyalists who served him in exile — with the BNP stalwarts who endured jail and torture in Bangladesh.
Externally, he must overcome the “Dynastic Tag” in an era where young voters are increasingly hostile to family-led politics. His decision to support the July Charter (with some reservations on the Upper House structure) suggests a pragmatic shift toward shared power.
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The BNP is currently in a state of mourning following the death of former Prime Minister Begum Khaleda Zia in December. Her passing removed a significant emotional anchor for the party but solidified Tarique Rahman’s absolute control over the party’s machinery.
Analysts suggest a sympathy wave may bolster the BNP’s numbers in the rural heartlands where Zia remained a beloved figure.
Dr. Shafiqur Rahman
The most dramatic comeback of the 2026 cycle belongs to Dr. Shafiqur Rahman, the Ameer of Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami. Following the 2024 uprising, Jamaat moved with predatory efficiency to fill the void left by the collapsed police and administrative services.
Under Shafiqur’s leadership, Jamaat has successfully rebranded. No longer just a religious cadre, the party has positioned itself as the ‘party of social order.”
Their “Healthcare at the Doorstep” and “Corruption-Free Governance” slogans have resonated in rural areas where the BNP’s local machinery is seen as “extortionist.”
Perhaps his most significant move was forging the 11-Party Alliance with student groups. By giving the “Generation Z” activists a platform and resources, Shafiqur has shielded Jamaat from the “Anti-1971” labels that historically crippled the party.
If the 11-party bloc wins more than 80 seats, Shafiqur Rahman will become the ultimate kingmaker, likely demanding the Home or Education ministries in any coalition.
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Nahid Islam
In July 2024, Nahid Islam was a student with a megaphone and a bandage on his leg, standing against a wall of riot police. Today, as the Convener of the National Citizen Party (NCP), he is the most influential youth leader in the country.
Nahid’s journey from the streets to the Cabinet (as the former interim Adviser for Information) and finally to the ballot box represents the coming-of-age of the 2024 movement.
His NCP is the wild card of the 2026 election as critics call the party ‘inexperienced’ and ‘ideologically hollow’.
By allying with Jamaat, Nahid has faced backlash from secular intellectuals, but he argues that this is the only way to prevent a BNP-Awami League style duopoly. His performance in the Dhaka-11 constituency is being watched as a litmus test for whether his movement can translate into power.
Mahfuj Alam
While Nahid Islam is the face of the revolution, Mahfuj Alam is its brain. As the Special Assistant to the Chief Adviser and the chief coordinator of the July National Charter, Alam is the man who turned protest slogans into constitutional clauses.
Alam is rarely seen on the campaign trail, but his fingerprints are everywhere. He is the primary architect of the Bicameral Legislature proposal — a move designed to curb the “Winner-Take-All” nature of Bangladeshi politics.
His vision for a “National Consensus” government after the election has become the central debate of the 2026 cycle.
Alam represents the intellectual guard that fears a return to 1990s-style partisan warfare. If the referendum on the July Charter passes with a “Yes” vote on February 12, it will be a personal victory for Alam’s vision of a decentralised, pluralistic Bangladesh.
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Sheikh Hasina
For the first time in decades, the “Boat” symbol will not appear on the ballot.
Nevertheless, Sheikh Hasina remains the most talked-about figure in the election.
Currently residing in India, she was sentenced to death in absentia on November 17, 2025, by the International Crimes Tribunal for “crimes against humanity.”
Her son, Sajeeb Wazed Joy, has released weekly video messages from the US,
calling the February 12 vote a “farce” and urging supporters to choose the “No” option in the referendum to delegitimise the new constitution.
The
absence of the Awami League creates a disenfranchised voting bloc of roughly 25-30 per cent of the traditional electorate. Where these silent voters go — whether they stay home, vote for independents, or select the No Vote option — will likely decide the outcome in at least 50 swing constituencies.
The government’s fear is that these disenfranchised voters could act as spoilers. Every security briefing in Dhaka this week has focused on the “Hasina Factor” — the potential for sabotage or a coordinated boycott that could undermine the election’s turnout and inter