Singapore
The resale price index fell by 0.1 per cent in the first quarter of 2026, marking the first quarterly drop since 2019.
General view of HDB residential blocks (File photo: CNA/Jeremy Long)
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01 Apr 2026 02:23PM
SINGAPORE: Housing and Development Board (HDB) resale prices are expected to grow at a more measured pace in 2026, due to an expanding supply of flats, said property analysts.
Global uncertainties could also weigh on demand, they added.
This comes as the market showed further signs of moderating. According to flash estimates released by HDB on Wednesday (Apr 1), the resale price index for the first quarter fell by 0.1 per cent – the first quarterly drop in almost seven years.
It follows five consecutive quarters of slower or flat price growth.
Analysts said the data suggests that the market is transitioning towards a more sustainable phase, projecting growth of between 2 per cent and 5 per cent.
BTO LAUNCHES A key factor moderating the resale market is the significant ramp-up in public housing supply.
Mr Mohan Sandrasegeran, SRI’s head of research and data analytics, said that while demand will remain due to household formation and lifestyle needs, the expanded pipeline of flats – both new and resale – is expected to keep price growth in check.
“The continued ramp up in BTO (Build-to-Order) housing supply, particularly within mature estates, is expected to play an important longer-term role in anchoring price stability in the resale market,” said Mr Sandrasegeran.
“The introduction of new public housing projects within such areas reflects a deliberate effort to broaden access to highly sought-after locations while supporting a more balanced market outcome.”
The government plans to launch around 19,600 BTO flats in 2026, including more than 4,000 flats with shorter waiting times of less than three years.
In the June BTO exercise alone, about 6,900 flats will be offered across various towns, including Ang Mo Kio, Bishan, Bukit Merah, Sembawang and Woodlands.
“This will help to meet the underlying demand for new HDB flats in these areas,” said Mr Eugene Lim, key executive officer at ERA Singapore.
Upcoming BTO projects in prime areas like Upper Thomson and Pearl’s Hill are also likely to draw significant interest and provide a more accessible way for buyers willing to wait to enter popular neighbourhoods, he added.
This year’s BTO exercises will substantially grow Singapore’s housing supply, diversify options and support more stable resale price growth, he said.
Separately, the reintroduction of multiple Sale of Balance Flats (SBF) exercises and the availability of shorter waiting-time flats have further broadened options for buyers, reducing the urgency to enter the resale market, said Mr Sandrasegeran.
Supply in the resale segment is also expected to expand as more flats meet their five-year minimum occupation period (MOP).
Ms Christine Sun, chief researcher and strategist at Realion (OrangeTee & ETC) Group, said that around 34,400 units reached their MOP from 2023 to 2025. According to HDB data, around 53,800 flats reach their MOP from 2026 to 2028, marking a 56.1 per cent increase, she added.
Having more flats reach their MOP has helped sustain transaction volumes even as price growth stays moderate, Mr Lim said.
“Resale supply is set to expand significantly in 2026, with an estimated 13,480 flats reaching their MOP in 2026, nearly double the 6,973 units in 2025,” he added.
“Coupled with a steady pipeline of BTO launches, the increase in MOP flats is expected to keep price growth at a measured pace, thereby stabilising the market.”
GLOBAL RISKS COULD DAMPEN SENTIMENT Uncertainty stemming from the Middle East conflict could pose risks to the outlook, particularly if it drives up energy prices and prolongs inflationary pressures.
“In this environment, homebuyers tend to adopt a more cautious approach,” Mr Lim said.
“Some HDB homeowners might delay their upgrading plans, while those with more flexibility may prefer BTO flats over resale units, as they are willing to wait,” he said.
Prices could also come under pressure if the conflict escalates and begins to affect borrowing costs, inflation, or business conditions and employment.
While the HDB resale market has not experienced the full impact of the Middle East war, it could take a hit if the conflict escalates, said Ms Sun.
“Price movements will be contingent on how the Middle East conflicts evolve,” Ms Sun said.
Given the macroeconomic uncertainties, she does not expect prices to escalate in the near term.
MARKET REMAINS UNEVEN Even as resale prices moderate, analysts said performance across the market is likely to remain uneven.
Well-located or newer units, and flats with desirable attributes, are likely to see firm demand and command higher prices, said Ms Wong Siew Ying, head of research and content at PropNex.
“Despite the overall moderation in the HDB resale market, several towns and a couple of flat types each posted record high prices during the quarter, based on the sales data,” she noted.
Nine towns – Bukit Batok, Bukit Merah, Clementi, Pasir Ris, Punggol, Queenstown, Sembawang, Sengkang and Tampines – registered record HDB resale prices in the first quarter of 2026, she pointed out.
“Following various rounds of cooling measures and the ramp-up in new flat supply in recent years, the effects of these interventions are becoming evident in the market,” said Ms Wong.
“That said, we anticipate that the market performance will remain differentiated.”
At the same time, Mr Sandrasegeran noted changes in the transaction patterns of resale purchases in mature estates.
These purchases accounted for 41.6 per cent of resale transactions in the first quarter of 2026, down from 44.1 per cent in the previous quarter.
Meanwhile, non-mature estate transactions rose to 58.4 per cent, up from 55.9 per cent in the last quarter of 2025.
“This shift suggests that a larger proportion of buyers are transacting in more affordable non-mature estates, where price points are generally lower,” said Mr Mohan.
As demand becomes more distributed across different locations, particularly toward lower-priced segments, this is also contributeing to a moderation in overall resale price growth, he said.