Washington residents might have been lulled into a false sense of security earlier this winter when more than a month passed without a new case of coronavirus infection.
Then late last week, the news no one wanted to hear hit: Two more people had been confirmed to have the disease and one of them had died. By Saturday, the total number of diagnosed cases in the state ballooned to more than 100, with at least 16 deaths — the vast majority in the Seattle area at a nursing home.
The rapidly evolving crisis might have lessons for Oregon.
Oregon disclosed three coronavirus cases from Feb. 28 to March 2 and then announced day after day of negative test results for dozens of people, bringing a sense of relief to some.
But Saturday brought four more cases, raising the total to seven people diagnosed in four Oregon counties: Washington, Umatilla, Jackson and Klamath. Clark County in Washington also reported one case just over the border from Portland.
Experts in the field of infectious disease say many more tests need to be administered to understand the extent of the problem in Oregon and elsewhere, but Oregonians should expect cases to grow and shouldn’t become complacent.
Viruses can pass quickly from one community to another — especially two as interconnected as Seattle and Portland, just a three-hour drive apart.
“They’re epidemiological mirrors of each other,” said Benjamin Dalziel, an Oregon State University assistant professor of integrative biology who has studied the spread of infectious diseases.
Dalziel believes just like with the flu, the new coronavirus will almost certainly move from one Northwest hub to the other as people travel and interact.
“What happens in Seattle is going to happen in Portland, in Corvallis, if it’s not all ready,” Dalziel said. “I think that’s the plausible scenario. … They’re just so connected. Certainly enough to sync up.”
A view of the Seattle skyline. (Thomas Boyd/The Oregonian/File photo)LC- The Oregonian
So far, Seattle has launched a much bigger response in an attempt to contain the virus. It remains to be seen if Oregon will follow suit.
Oregon’s Gov. Kate Brown and public health leaders have repeatedly asked people to remain calm and go about their usual lives with a few exceptions – including washing their hands frequently and staying at home if they have cold-like or flu-like symptoms.
The Oregon Health Authority on Saturday renewed its recommendation “that all people in Oregon take everyday precautions to prevent the spread of many respiratory illnesses, including COVID-19 and influenza.”
State and local health officials aren’t ready yet to impose major social distancing measures.
“Canceling events, telecommuting for work and closing schools are serious decisions that cause social disruption and can have far-reaching ripple effects on our kids’ education and our various workforce members,” Multnomah County officials said in a news release.
Hard-hit Washington has scrambled into high gear to stem the proliferation of the virus.
Its public health officials also have stressed handwashing and staying home when sick, but now Public Health-Seattle & King County is recommending that people 60 and older — about 425,000 people within the county — stay home “as much as possible.”
King County has advised an untold number of other people with underlying health conditions to do the same.
Public health officials in King County hold a news conference after the second and third cases of new coronavirus were announced in Washington. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson)AP
According to one study out of China, where the outbreak originated late last year, people over 60 or people with abnormally high blood pressure, diabetes, heart disease, respiratory disease and cancer were the most likely to suffer a severe bout of COVID-19 or die from it.
The health department also has advised people of all ages to avoid large groups of people and to consider postponing and canceling events.
The department has urged businesses to allow people to work from home. Major employers such as Amazon, Microsoft, Google and Facebook have either urged or outright mandated their employees in the Seattle area to work from home. Amazon said this week that one of its Seattle-based employees had come down with the virus, and Facebook said one of its contractors had.
The University of Washington will shut down its 46,000-student campus starting Monday and will hold classes online at least until March 20, the end of winter quarter.
The U.S. District Court for Western Washington has canceled all in-person hearings in Tacoma and Seattle until further notice.
“This is a critical moment in the growing outbreak of COVID-19 in King County and these measures can potentially impact the spread of the disease,” reads a public announcement from the health department.
A man in protective clothing cleans the County Oak Medical Centre GP practice in Brighton, England, after Britain declared the new coronavirus a “serious and imminent threat to public health.” (Steve Parsons/PA via AP)AP
Dalziel, the OSU scientist, praised the Seattle area’s strategy of social distancing. “Absolutely,” he said. “If you can do it, do it.”
Carrying out such measures, however, comes at a cost, including economic and personal tolls. It’s hard to stay cooped up at home, avoiding friends and nights out.
And how long can you shut down a huge university?
“There are certainly scenarios where if you were to start that relatively early, that’s good from a point of view of being aggressive in terms of control,” Dalziel said. “But it has downstream costs that start to accrue.”
Still, he said, starting aggressive measures too late means missing an important window to interrupt the daunting momentum of a disease.
“Portland is saying, ‘We are going to be doing the prudent things now and be ready to ramp it