Canada’s Chief Public Health Officer Dr. Theresa Tam says models that attempt to predict how many people could become infected and die from the coronavirus are not “crystal balls,” and that it’s more important to focus on what is happening with the outbreak in real time.
Dr. Theresa Tam says it’s important for Canadians to understand the limits of statistical modelling when it comes to predicting the impact of COVID-19. 0:49
Canada’s Chief Public Health Officer Dr. Theresa Tam says models that attempt to predict how many people could become infected and die from the coronavirus are not “crystal balls,” and that it’s more important to focus on what is happening with the outbreak in real time.
Tam said public health officials and the federal government use different models for planning purposes, but whether or not different projections will actually play out is highly dependent on the actions taken by governments and citizens.
“The use of modelling or other projections always describes a range of possibilities … they’re not actual crystal balls or real numbers,” said Tam. “That’s why we keep saying we need to act now and practise social distancing, self-isolation, hand hygiene, and all those measures, because the fate of those possibilities and scenarios is in our hands.”
The comments come as pressure mounts on the federal government to release national-level p