The presence of an effective nuclear and conventional deterrent marshalled by India and China is likely to prevent an escalation of military tensions between the two neighbours, despite the loss of 20 Indian and an unknown number of Chinese troops in Ladakh on Monday.
“We are at a stage when a full-scale conventional war between India and China can be ruled out, though sporadic armed face-offs are possible. India has an effective nuclear and conventional deterrent vis-a-vis China, despite existing shortcomings in delivery systems, such as the Agni-V missile,” says Manpreet Sethi, Distinguished Fellow and head of the Nuclear Security Project at the New Delhi-based Centre for Air Power Studies.
The Agni-V, which is apparently in the final stages of development, is a three-stage solid fuelled missile, which can carry a 1,500 kilogram nuclear warhead to a 5,500-5,800 kilometres distance, covering China.
But even in the absence of the Agni-V, the Indian atomic deterrent vis-a-vis China is not toothless. A report by the Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs estimates that “around 10 Agni-III launchers can reach the entire Chinese mainland. Another eight Agni-II launchers could reach central Chinese targets.”
Besides an estimated two squadrons of Jaguar IS and one squadron of Mirage 2000H fighters, totalling around 51 aircraft, have b