The peak stage of COVID-19 in India has been delayed by the eight-week lockdown and has strengthened public health measures, and it may now arrive around mid-November when a paucity of isolation and ICU beds and ventilators can arise, a study says.
The study, conducted by researchers from an operations research group constituted by the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), said the lockdown shifted the peak by an estimated 34 days to 76 days and helped bring down the number of infections by between 69% and 97%, allowing time to shore up resources and health infrastructure.
Interactive map of confirmed coronavirus cases in India | State-wise tracker for coronavirus cases, deaths and testing rates
In a scenario of intensified public health measures with 60% effectiveness after the lockdown, the demand for treatment facilities can be met until the first week of November. Thereafter, isolation beds could be inadequate for 5.4 months, ICU beds for 4.6 months and ventilators for 3.9 months, projections by the researchers showed.
However, this shortfall is estimated to be 83% less than what it could have been without the lockdown and public health measures.
With sustained measures to increase the infrastructure and the varying pace of the epidemic in different regions, the impact of the unmet need can be reduced. If the coverage