With Trump’s return to power and China’s growing influence, Pakistan faces the daunting challenge of redefining its foreign policy amid rising global uncertainties
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Pakistan faces a tough diplomatic challenge under a second Trump White House. Reuters
The calculation in Pakistan is going to change significantly with Donald Trump’s return to power, bringing uncertainty to Islamabad’s foreign policy. Pakistan is facing a US administration that has been both a partner and a rival in the past, and this time, the relationship may become even more unpredictable.
After the US withdrew from Afghanistan in 2021, the relationship between Washington DC and Islamabad has undergone many changes. Now, with Trump back in office, Pakistan may need to adjust its diplomatic priorities even more.
A shift in priorities
The departure of the Biden administration and the return of Trump brings a shift in US foreign policy priorities leaving Pakistan on the sidelines. Under Biden, US-Pakistan relations were marked by cautious engagement, focussing on regional stability and counterterrorism, but the relationship never returned to the prominence it had in earlier decades.
Maleeha Lodhi, Pakistan’s former ambassador to the US, described this period to Geo TV as one of “benign disengagement.” Pakistan was no longer a key player in US foreign policy, especially after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. Pakistan’s role in US counterterrorism operations decreased, leaving the country struggling to redefine its position in the world.
With Trump back in power, Pakistan may face a more unpredictable diplomatic relationship. Trump’s “America First” policy, which focussed on US interests over multilateral engagement, could complicate Pakistan’s foreign policy decisions.
Without a structured and cooperative relationship, Pakistan may need to make more concessions for little diplomatic gain. This disengagement could also reduce Pakistan’s ability to influence US policies on important regional issues like counterterrorism and South Asian security.
The Trump factor
Trump’s foreign policy was previously known for being unpredictable, relying on personal diplomacy, and focussing more on bilateral agreements than multilateral ones. For Pakistan, this could mean that its relationship with the US might depend more on the personal connection between leaders than on formal diplomatic channels or long-term strategic partnerships.
While Trump’s views on global issues might not change much from his first term, his approach to Pakistan could be influenced by personal gestures.
During Trump’s first term, he and the then-Pakistani Prime Minister, Imran Khan, had a working relationship. However, that was in the past and therefore Pakistan’s foreign policy under a second Trump administration could be one of waiting for signals from Washington, trying to figure out how its interests align with Trump’s unpredictable decisions.
Balancing US and China
One of the most important parts of Pakistan’s foreign policy after Trump’s second inauguration is managing the delicate balance between the US and China. While Pakistan has traditionally been aligned with the US, it is becoming more connected to China through its strategic partnership and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
The growing rivalry between the US