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NEW DELHI: Is India’s surge in Covid-19 cases over the last month attributable to higher testing? Not quite. Most states have more cases than they would have had if cases had risen at the same rate as tests (expected cases).
Nationally, the gap between the actual cases and expected cases was 9% as of Sunday morning. For instance, if Andhra Pradesh’s cases had risen proportionately with testing in the past one month, the state would have had a little over 55,400 cases on July 25.
In reality, there were 88,671 cases, 60% higher than the expected value. Similarly, Karnataka had 85,870 cases, which was 30% higher than the 66,000odd expected cases. In 13 of the 21 large states, the case count was more than 10% higher than the expected value calculated on the ba