Political analyst Prashant Kishor says that ‘everyone has something to be happy about’ with the results of the Lok Sabha elections. India Today spoke to Prashant Kishor on the results of the Lok Sabha elections 2024.
In a conversation with India Today’s News Director Rahul Kanwal and Consulting Editor Rajdeep Sardesai, Prashant Kishor admitted that his assessment of the numbers was wrong. He had predicted that BJP would get more than 300 seats in the Lok Sabha elections. Prashant Kishor emphasized that ‘it is important to understand things beyond the numbers’.
‘There was no impact on BJP’s vote share’
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Prashant Kishor said, ‘Yes, we were proven wrong, at least by 20 percent. We had predicted around 300 (seats for BJP), and the number was 240, the difference was 20 percent.’ Prashant Kishor said that there was no widespread anger against PM Modi and there was no impact on the vote share of BJP.
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Prashant Kishor said, ‘There was a lot of discontent (against the BJP) in some areas, maybe even a little anger. But there was no widespread anger against Modi.’ Prashant Kishor said that his prediction about the BJP’s seats turned out to be wrong, but the party managed to retain its vote share. He said, ‘If you look beyond the numbers, then this (assessment) is not that wrong. Because ultimately they (BJP) got 36 percent vote share, which is the status quo… Modi is coming back, the NDA government is coming back. They are still the number-1 party.’
‘Congress has improved its performance’
In the 2024 elections, the Congress has improved its performance from the last two Lok Sabha elections. The party has won 99 seats out of a total of 543. But according to Prashant Kishore, this cannot be seen as a major revival of the party. He said, ‘It has revived (enthusiasm) to some extent among those who are Congress supporters. They have increased their confidence that this person (Rahul Gandhi) can make us win.’
‘The question of the stability of the coalition government is wrong’
Prashant Kishor stressed, ‘I repeat, this is the third worst performance in the history of Congress. Even during Indira Gandhi’s time when Congress failed, they had won 154 seats. Getting 99 or 101 or 102 seats is not a sign of a big revival of Congress. It just shows that they have a chance.’ He said that the question of the stability of the coalition government is wrong, and Narendra Modi will manage to run the government and even implement big reforms. He gave the example of PV Narasimha Rao, who carried out big reforms under the coalition government in the early 90s. Prashant Kishor said, ‘There is a lot of discussion about the stability of the coalition. Let’s talk about 1991. Narasimha Rao also had the same number of seats. But the government achieved everything. Those who are asking whether PM Modi will be able to do big things, definitely he will do it because Narasimha Rao has done it.’
Also read: What did Prashant Kishor say when his 4 predictions related to Lok Sabha elections 2024 went wrong?
‘Some changes are coming in the NDA alliance’
Prashant Kishor said that there are some changes coming in the NDA alliance, referring to PM Modi’s speech after the victory, where he talked about the victory of NDA instead of BJP. He also rejected the argument of Chandrababu Naidu and Nitish Kumar controlling the NDA. Prashant Kishor said that there is no situation where they can form the government even after leaving the BJP-led alliance.
‘The opposition gained in Maharashtra, Haryana and Jharkhand’
Prashant Kishor said that the opposition is in a position of advantage in three states – Maharashtra, Haryana and Jharkhand – where elections are to be held later this year. He said, ‘The good thing for the opposition in these states is that the BJP is on the backfoot.’ He said, ‘I think Indian leaders understand this and that is why they said, ‘We will take it at the right time’. My advice to the opposition is to put all your strength and focus on those three states.’ Prashant Kishor said that if the BJP fails to save at least two of these three states, the party will face troubles including internal dissent and separation of allies.
‘BJP will remain the dominant force for the next 20-30 years’
Prashant Kishor said that BJP will remain a major force in the next 20-30 years. He said, ‘The next 20-30 years will be an era dominated by BJP. This does not mean that BJP will not lose elections, they can also go into opposition. But in the politics of the country, as happened with Congress for 40 years, in the next 20-30 years of our lifetime, BJP will be the pole around which politics will revolve. They will remain the dominant political force.’