7NEWS has tonight released the first prediction from its Election Needle, revealing that the Federal Election remains a “toss-up” but with a slight lean towards Anthony Albanese to remain as Prime Minister.
If an election were to be held today, the most probable outcome according to the 7NEWS Election Needle would be a minority Labor government led by Albanese in a hung parliament.
The 7NEWS Election Needle is designed to cut through the information overload and party spin to give Australians a clear and immediate pulse check on the upcoming Federal Election.
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It indicates who is in the best position at any given moment to form government.
The Needle sways based on expert analysis and data from a team of more than one dozen journalists, statisticians, political scientists and researchers, led by veteran 7NEWS Political Editor Mark Riley, with leading political scientists Dr Simon Jackman and Dr Luke Mansillo.
It is also informed by weekly data of every poll across the country throughout the campaign, collated by respected research company Painted Dog Research.
Many published polls currently have all the momentum with Dutton and the Coalition.
7NEWS’ first Election Needle has Albanese with a slight advantage. Credit: Supplied However, as Dr Mansillo explained to 7NEWS, traditional two-party preferred polling is becoming less reliable for predicting who will an election as the race becomes more about seat-by-seat battles. The rise of independents is also making polling much more complex.
“For about one-fifth of the seats it [two-party preferred polling] no longer makes sense, and that means when you look at the national totals it really does not make much sense because we’re starting to see the introduction of strategic voting … And that really plays havoc with the way our mental models for how we think about Australian politics,” he said.
Dr Mansillo said that many Australians are not voting for a certain party but rather against political parties.
“It’s always been right that getting more votes is good, but they just have to be in the right places. If they’re not in the right places, you’re not playing the game right. And the Coalition … are boxing themselves into a corner. But that being said, the Labor Party isn’t doing themselves any favours [either],” he said.
Dr Mansillo said the most likely current scenario is a minority Labor government, with both parties likely securing about 66 seats each. The Greens and the Teals would then be needed to prop up a Labor minority government.
“The crossbench are in a position where they are dependent upon the Labor Party for their legitimacy in the sense that the Teals exist because they have removed the Coalition [in 2022] and the Greens are enfeebled because they cannot reasonably prevent the Labor Party from securing government,” he said.
7NEWS Political Editor Mark Riley added: “All the published polls point to a hung parliament, which gives Labor has a decided advantage. A majority of the 15 Teal, Green and independent crossbenchers are likely to back Labor over the Coalition to form a minority government. That being the case, the first 7NEWS Election Needle points to a minority Labor victory. But it is tight. The 7NEWS Election Needle says a ‘toss-up’.”
With every big moment in the lead up to and during the campaign — every swing, every gaffe, every shift in public mood and every poll accounted for — the 7NEWS Election Needle will provide Australians with the most up-to-date prediction on who will win.
On election night, the Needle will move in real-time to call victory between Anthony Albanese’s Labor Party and Peter Dutton’s the Coalition as soon as possible.
7NEWS – Australia’s #1 news service – has assembled the biggest election team in Australia to deliver the most comprehensive and advanced coverage of the Federal Election and put viewers well ahead of the rest across Seven, 7plus, 7NEWS.com.au and socials platforms.
With reporters stationed in every corner of the country, the news network will be unstoppable whenever and wherever viewers need the truth and the pulse from key battlegrounds and booths in all states and territories.