Armenia– India Relations: From Politics to Arms Trade

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan meets India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the margins of his working check out to New York, September 26, 2019 During my scholastic see to New Delhi in February 2020, I met Indian political leaders and scholars and gone over chances for updating Armenian-Indian relations. While at that time the concept of arms trade was still immature, I raised the concern of defense cooperation in between the 2 nations. Through sincere conversations about the Armenian cause, I came to a conclusion, which I summed up in a November 2020 short article for the Armenian Weekly: “In order to stabilize the Turkish-Azerbaijani-Pakistani axis, Armenia and India should boost tactical and security relationships and collaborate in global online forums. Yerevan and New Delhi can produce a typical security center to share intelligence details and battle terrorist activities in the area. Military drills and workouts (anti-terrorism training) need to be motivated in between both armies. In addition to the Russian Defense market, if required, Armenia can likewise seek to the Indian defense market to update its army with heavy weapons such as attack drones, several launch rocket systems, and anti-tank directed rockets.”

Despite today’s turbulent environment in Armenia, it’s assuring to discover that this 2020 suggestion has actually emerged, and bilateral ties are taking military and tactical measurements. The Politics Behind the Modern Armenian-Indian Relations After Armenia’s defeat in the 2020 war over Nagorno-Karabakh with Azerbaijan, the nation ended up being more politically and financially separated. Due to its bad facilities, Armenia might not participate in China’s Belt and Road Initiative, and Chinese financial investments bypassed Yerevan and focused on Baku. This benefited India, as Yerevan has actually aimed to develop ties with increasing Asian nations in order to diversify its financial and political connections. Thanks to the Armenian Diaspora and the efforts of the Armenian federal government, a strong political bond has actually been developed in the last few years in between Yerevan and New Delhi. High profile check outs have actually identified bilateral relations, and this was strengthened with India’s PM Narendra Modi’s conference with PM Nikol Pashinyan in New York in September 2019 on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. Afterwards, both counties collaborated their positions on Kashmir and Azerbaijan’s aggressiveness towards Armenia.
Behind the Armenian-Indian rapprochement, there are political advancements. On September 29, Pranab Dhal Samanra, from the leading Indian paper Economic Times, composed a post entitled “India can not overlook the hazardous experiences of the ‘3 bros’ in Armenia and somewhere else.” He cautions that if this axis is sealed in the South Caucasus, it will move southward, and Azerbaijan, Turkey and Pakistan will work together in other theaters, consisting of Kashmir. Samanra states that Turkey and Azerbaijan have actually constantly supported Pakistan’s position on Kashmir, and in return, Pakistan has actually backed Azerbaijan in its war with Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh. Baku is likewise working out with Pakistan to buy Chinese-origin JF-17 fighters. “It is most likely in India’s interest that Armenia sets up a stand and not be run over upon since of a power vacuum (in South Caucasus) triggered by Russia’s fixation in Ukraine,” composes Samanra.

In an interview with the Armenian Weekly, Rananjay Anand, co-founder and president of the Indo-Armenian Friendship Society, pointed out that the current arms offer in between Armenia and India has lots of geopolitical ramifications in the South Caucasus area and beyond. This defense offer would definitely alter the security formulas in South Caucasus, in which Russia has actually constantly been the dominant gamer up until now. Russia has actually been the primary weapon provider to Armenia, however being preoccupied with Ukraine, Armenia is looking somewhere else to satisfy its defense requirements. Anand likewise raised issues about the Turkey-Azerbaijan-Pakistan alliance. He argued that India needs to assist Armenia to remain strong versus this aggressive push by the “3 siblings,” which might eventually reach the gates of Kashmir. This is why India needs to stop this offending push by the trio at any expense. In addition to the political nature of Armenia-India ties, there is likewise some financial weight that can not be disregarded. According to Aditi Bhaduri, Armenia can play a crucial function in the Indian-backed International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and the Iranian-backed Black Sea-Persian Gulf Transport Corridor. Bhaduri argues that by participating in trade and defense contracts, Armenia can end up being a “tactically substantial partner for India.” “India can establish bases and a business and defense center for joint manufacture and Indian exports beyond. Found in Russia’s sphere of impact, this is an extra benefit for India,” composes Bhaduri. Indian bases in Armenia must not give issue for Moscow, as they might bring security and stability to the South Caucasus. A strong and proactive Armenia will be helpful to Russia rather of a military concern, as Moscow might be stuck in the “Ukrainian mud” in the long run.
Anand, for his part, kept in mind that India likewise has geo-strategic and financial interest in the Central Asian Region, which is now called the Extended Neighborhood by India. According to Anand, the facility of INSTC together with Russia and Iran has actually been the pillar in this formula, which will not just link India with Eurasia and Central Asia however with Europe also through a sea-rail-road path. Specifically the factor India and Iran desired Armenia to join it for all advantages, although Baku has actually been engaging with INSTC as an important part of the path. Provided the geopolitical interest, it is important that Armenia ends up being an important part of the exact same to enhance and take this cooperation to the next level. By signing up with the INSTC, Armenia will have simple access to Indian markets and Indo-Armenian trade through Iran will produce a substantial increase in their bilateral trade. Military Dimension of Armenia-India Relations In a current interview, Armenia’s PM hinted that Russia is not able to satisfy Armenia’s defense requirement, likely due to the effect of Western-led sanctions on Russia’s defense market or Moscow is under the pressure of brief stocks due to the war in Ukraine. Armenia requires to buy heavy arms to protect its borders, discourage Azerbaijan’s aggressiveness and free the occupied Armenian lands that Azerbaijan recorded throughout the May 2021 and September 2022 military attacks. India is one possible military partner for Armenia.
Armenia had actually currently revealed interest in Indian military hardware prior to the 2020 war. In 2020, Yerevan signed a $40 million arms handle India for the supply of 4 SWATHI radars to spot the area of weapons. The radar system is developed to track inbound weapons shells, mortars, and rockets and identify the places of opponent launchers and positions. These radars have actually been effectively released along the Indian-Chinese and Indian-Pakistani borders.

In June 2022, with reports appearing of possible Azerbaijani military operations near the border with Armenia, an Armenian defense delegation went to India to work out with New Delhi for buying arms consisting of drones.

The settlements flourished in late September, when Indian papers reported that through a government-to-government agreement, India will be exporting rockets, rockets and ammo, consisting of the Pinaka multi-barrel rocket launcher (MBRL) system, to Armenia. India’s Pinaka has 6 launchers (12 rockets), which can reduce the effects of a location measuring 1000 meters x 800 meters with a series of 60 to 75 kilometers, and a DIGICORA MET radar. It is developed to change the army’s Russian-built BM-21 Grad launchers.

In addition to Pinaka, India is likewise apparently exporting anti-tank rockets to Armenia. The NAG ATGM (likewise called Prospina) is an Indian 3rd generation, all-weather, fire-and-forget, lock-on after launch, anti-tank assisted rocket (ATGM) with an operation variety of 500 meters to 20 km. It has a single-shot hit possibility of 90 percent and can be introduced from land and air. The strike variety of the rocket when introduced from a ground-based platform depends on 4 kilometers, while the strike variety, when introduced from the air, reaches 7 kilometers. The rocket has an integrated Imaging Infra-Red (IIR) candidate system with incorporated avionics that can disable heavy armor day and night.

India might likewise export its Man Portable Anti-Tank Guided Missile (MPATGM) to Armenia. The Indian Defense Research and Development Organization effectively evaluated it in January. The MPATGM has an optimal series of 2.5 kilometers and is assisted by an IIR system.
Yet these weapons are not adequate to enhance Armenia’s defense abilities. Both the Pinaka MBRL system and the ATGM would be valuable in ground-based attacks on Armenia however would not have the ability to fight the Turkish or Israeli-made drones as Armenia does not have the appropriate air defense reaction. In October, Sakshi Tiwari argued that Pinaka is inadequate as Armenia requires “BrahMos” and “Akash” rockets to “break the challengers’ teeth.”

Tiwari has actually carried out intriguing interviews with retired Indian military professionals on this concern. Retired Indian Major General Raj Mehta stated, “What (India is) exporting will not suffice. Pinaka and tank rockets aren’t drone suitable and are likewise costly. In war, hammers aren’t properly ahead to eliminate flies. One need to perform a hazard evaluation, after which the proper weapons can be selected. A ‘transparent’ battleground enables sensible options to be made. An Indian evaluation group might recognize the genuine battleground issues and after that recommend what India might supply at a sensible expense.” A basic take a look at the result of the 2020 war would inform us how the Turkish Bayraktar drones took down whole Armenian tanks and rocket launchers to the ground. The majority of the Armenian military casualties both throughout the 2020 war and the September 13 hostility were an outcome of drone attacks on the cutting edge, which Armenia does not have the air defense system to prevent. These attacks likewise had a mental effect, demoralizing conscripts on the ground.

Tiwari declares that in the Indian export list for 2021, there is one rocket that might enhance Yerevan’s air defense abilities: the “Akash” rocket. The “Akash” medium-range mobile surface-to-air rocket (SAM) system is among India’s most effective rockets that can engage several aerial targets in any weather condition. It can damage airplane within a variety of 30-35 kilometers and bring traditional and even nuclear warheads weighing as much as 60 kgs. According to Eurasia Times, “the system likewise consists of an arming and taking off system, a multifunctional fire control radar, a digital auto-pilot, a launcher, a nerve center, an essential objective assistance system, and a rocket.” In addition, it likewise has C4I (Command, Control, Communications and Intelligence). “Akash” rockets appropriate for damaging attack drones, cruise rockets and rockets introduced from helicopters and airplane. This can be helpful for Armenia offering cover to its protective systems being targeted by the Azerbaijani flying force consisting of the Turkish-made Bayraktar drones. Suggestions and Assessment According to the draft budget plan the Armenian federal government dispersed throughout the September 29 cabinet session, the federal government might increase its military budget plan for 2023 by 50 percent, reaching $1.2 billion.

Tiwari estimated a retired lieutenant colonel from the Indian army, JS Sondhi, specifying that though costly, Armenia might buy the Indian-Russian-made BrahMos supersonic rocket. BrahMos is the world’s fastest cruise rocket in service efficient in striking targets at more than 400 km variety. This can be a strong deterrent force in the hands of the Armenian army to avoid additional Azerbaijani attacks deep into Armenian area. Sondhi included that Armenia can likewise buy the Israeli-Indian-developed “Barak 8” air defense rocket system. This is doubtful as Israel might decline the sale under Azerbaijani pressure. Another possible purchase can be the Indian-made Rustom II attack drones. According to Indian military reports, the domestic drone “will most likely change the Israeli-made Heron UAVs in service with the Indian militaries.” Obviously, integrating brand-new military systems in Armenia’s Russian or Soviet-made defense systems is not a simple job, and training Armenian soldiers on these brand-new weapon systems will take a very long time, however that subject is delegated military specialists and policymakers.

Anand likewise argued that the present arms offer can be an advance. He states the timing of this defense offer is very important, as India has actually provided when it matters the most for Armenia to resist a harsh assailant. “In the coming future, both sides expect there must be even larger and much better offers including drones, anti-drone systems, surface area to air rockets, and fighter airplanes where India’s defense exports have actually been making big inroads now. India ought to use its world’s lightest fighter airplane Tejas and newly-inducted attack helicopter Prachand too, as they fit Armenia’s defense based on their cost,” he stated.

Anand concluded his remarks that apart from being a trustworthy defense-equipment provider, India can likewise assist Armenia by using the training of Armenian defense workers in numerous formats even including exchange training check outs, carrying out war-games and so on. Such military relations would continue establishing as India has actually currently designated a defense-attaché in Armenia (with home in Moscow).

Therefore, the Indian-Armenian arms trade can be a win-win service for both nations. If the Indian arms show efficient in the fights to come, it might improve the Indian defense market and boost interest to name a few states in buying Indian arms. By equipping Armenia, India can utilize Armenia as a deterrent force versus the “3 siblings.” For New Delhi, Yerevan would be the very first near abroad fortress versus the Turkish-led emerging “triple alliance.” Bio Twitter Latest Posts Yeghia Tashjian is a local expert and scientist. He has actually finished from the American University of Beirut in Public Policy and International Affairs. He pursued his bachelor’s degree at Haigazian University in government in2013 In 2010, he established the New Eastern Politics forum/blog. He was a research study assistant at the Armenian Diaspora Research Center at Haigazian University. Presently, he is the local officer of Women in War, a gender-based think tank. He has actually taken part in worldwide conferences in Frankfurt, Vienna, Uppsala, New Delhi and Yerevan. He has actually provided numerous subjects from minority rights to local security problems. His thesis subject was on China’s geopolitical and energy security interests in Iran and the Persian Gulf. He is a factor to numerous regional and local papers and a speaker of the “Turkey Today” program for Radio Voice of Van. Just recently he has actually been selected as associate fellow at the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs at the American University of Beirut and Middle East-South Caucasus professional in the European Geopolitical Forum.
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