As Victorians face yet another long period of enforced lockdown, serious concerns are being raised about people’s capacity to comply with the new orders and the mental health impacts of such prolonged social isolation.
The risks of being dispirited, chronically stressed and socially disconnected are real and substantial. While the behavioural consequences of “lockdown fatigue” are becoming more obvious, the questions to be answered from a mental health perspective are:
- who is most likely to be harmed by a longer, more stringent lockdown?
- what are the public policy responses that are most likely to deliver real benefits?
Job losses and social disconnection
On the first issue, Sydney University’s Brain and Mind Centre has produced both place-based models and a provisional national simulation model to estimate the possible size of the impact of the pandemic on mental health and suicide rates, as well as identifying those who are most likely to be affected.
Prior to the recent spike in cases in Victoria, our most conservative estimates were a 14 per cent increase in overall suicide rates due to COVID-19 restrictions and the subsequent social dislocation and economic fall-out nationally.
The real drivers of these substantive health risks are job losses, social disconnection and, for young people, the availability of support for ongoing education and training.
Given the return to lockdown in Melbourne, we now expect to see much greater levels of uncertainty about job prospects — particularly in those industries like hospitality, tourism and the arts that were already devastated — as well as a more prolonged pe