Canada’s governing Liberal Party has won national elections dominated by United States President Donald Trump’s trade war and annexation threats.
Prime Minister Mark Carney, a career economist and banker who cast himself as a champion for Canada in the face of Trump’s threats, led the Liberals to a fourth consecutive term on Monday, a stunning turnaround for a party that until recently was on track for a crushing defeat at the hands of the Conservative Party.
Carney, who had never held office before taking the top job in March, cast the outcome as an opportunity to “stand up for Canada” and “build Canada strong”.
“As I’ve been warning for months, America wants our land, our resources, our water, our country,” Carney said in a victory speech, in which he called on Canadians to never forget the lessons of the “American betrayal”.
“These are not idle threats. President Trump is trying to break us so America can own us. That will never – that will never, ever happen. But we also must recognise the reality that our world has fundamentally changed.”
Carney said Canada was again facing one of the “hinge moments of history” just as it did at the start of the Second World War and the end of the Cold War.
“Our old relationship with the United States, a relationship based on steadily increasing integration, is over,” he said.
“The system of open global trade, anchored by the United States – a system that Canada has relied on since the Second World War, a system that, while not perfect, has helped deliver prosperity for our country for decades – is over.”
Although Carney’s Liberals won the most seats in the 343-member House of Commons, it is unclear if he will be able to form a majority government or need to rely on the support of a smaller party.
With the votes still being counted late on Monday, the Liberals were on course to win at least 165 seats, with the Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, on track to take at least 147, according to projections by national broadcaster CBC.
The Liberals last won a parliamentary majority in 2015 and had relied on the support of the left-leaning New Democratic Party to pass legislation after narrowly winning the 2021 election with 160 seats.
The election result marks an extraordinary reversal of fortune for the centre-left party, which trailed the Conservatives by more than 20 points in polls as recently as January.
Surge of patriotism as Canada faces tensions with Trump
While Poilievre, 45, had hoped to capitalise on the widespread unpopularity of former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, whom voters blamed for rising living costs and record levels of immigration, Trump’s return to the White House prompted a surge in patriotic sentiment in Canada and galvanised voters around the incumbent government.
After leading the race for more than two years, the Conservatives’ advantage quickly evaporated when Carney replaced Trudeau as the person tasked with navigating the escalating tensions between Ottawa and Washington.
By the time election day came around, the Liberals were polling as clear favourites.
“We will always put Canada first,” Poilievre said in a concession speech to supporters, adding that his party would work with the government on the “common goal of defending Canada’s interests” and “getting a new trade deal that puts these tariffs behind us while protecting our sovereignty”.
While on the campaign trail, Carney, who formerly led the central banks of Canada and the United Kingdom, touted his financial experience and pushed back aggressively on Trump’s trade salvoes and threats to turn Canada into the 51st US state.
In a final pitch to voters on Sunday, Carney said Canadians must accept the “new reality” that their country’s once-friendly relationship with the US was over.
“This is a tragedy,” he said in a speech to supporters. “This is still in play. But it is a tragedy.”
As Canadians went to the polls on Monday, Trump, who named Canada as one of the first countries to face tariffs upon taking office, returned to his talking point about the northern neighbour becoming a US state.
“Good luck to the Great people of Canada,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
“Elect the man who has the strength and wisdom to cut your taxes in half, increase your military power, for free, to the highest level in the World, have your Car, Steel, Aluminum, Lumber, Energy, and all other businesses, QUADRUPLE in size, WITH ZERO TARIFFS OR TAXES, if Canada becomes the cherished 51st. State of the United States of America. No more artificially drawn line from many years ago.”
Nearly 29 million Canadians were eligible to vote in the election, with a record 7.3 million voters casting ballots in advance of the poll.