The number of COVID-19 cases around the world has just passed 1 million, and it may seem as though this pandemic will never go away. It is important to remember that, in their labs, scientists are making quiet progress every day — helping untangle the causes of this crisis and inching closer to stopping it.
A couple of weeks ago, Medical News Today first rounded up emerging evidence that gave us reasons to be cautiously hopeful.
In this article, we continue the series by looking at the impact of social distancing measures, newly launched treatment trials, and hopes for a vaccine.
Stay informed with live updates on the current COVID-19 outbreak and visit our coronavirus hub for more advice on prevention and treatment.
A new study by Prof. Chaolong Wang and colleagues from Huazhong University of Science and Technology, in Wuhan, China, suggests that the social distancing measures implemented by Chinese officials prevented more than 90% of possible infections between January 23 and February 18, 2020.
Prof. Wang and the team reached this conclusion after having developed a method of predicting virus transmission patterns by looking at population movement, unconfirmed cases, and people in quarantine.
The study also predicted that nearly 60% of the people carrying the virus had no symptoms and were not self-isolating. This may have contributed to the quick spread of the virus.
These findings are consistent with those of other studies, such as one published in Eurosurveillance that looked at the spread of the virus on the Diamond Princess cruise ship.
Prof. Gerardo Chowell, a co-author of this study, highlights the importance of social distancing as the only way to block the chain of contagion in the context of asymptomatic cases.
“Implementing strong social distancing measures is the only way to stop the virus from spreading.”
– Prof. Gerardo Chowell, study co-author
Another study, led by Prof. Christopher Dye, from the University of Oxford, in the United Kingdom, used large datasets to analyze the movements of millions of people as a result of the nationwide travel ban in China.
The travel ban was instated on January 23, 2020.
“Based on [these] data, we could also calculate the likely reduction in Wuhan-associated cases in other cities across China,” says study co-author Prof. Ottar Bjornstad, from Pennsylvania State University, in University Park.
The scientists considered the number of cases from the beginning of the outbreak until February 19, 2020, the 50th day since the outbreak’s start.
They also looked at the cases between January 23 and February 19, having accessed public health records and case reports of COVID-19.
During this time, “Our analysis suggests that without the Wuhan travel ban and the national emergency response, there would have been more than 700,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases outside of Wuhan,” says Prof. Dye.
“China’s control measures appear to have worked by successfully breaking the chain of transmission — preventing contact between infectious and susceptible people.”
– Prof. Christopher Dye
The World Health Organization (WHO) have launched SOLIDARITY, an international megatrial of four possible ways to treat COVID-19.
The first trial will look at repurposing remdesivir, a drug that was developed to treat Ebola but