The markets witnessed a corrective move in a volatile week while ending lower. Nifty trended lower throughout the week and ended on a negative note. The index oscillated in a wide intra-week range of 733 points as it moved between 25,653 and 24,919. India VIX surged sharply by 24.80% to 14.19, indicating a sudden spike in risk perception and uncertainty. Nifty ended the week with a net loss of 645.70 points or -2.51%.
The current technical structure of Nifty reflects a significant breakdown. After failing to confirm a breakout, the Index has slipped below the trendline that was drawn from the high formed in September 2024. It has also slipped below the short-term 20-week moving average and now hovers near the lower Bollinger Band. The lower Bollinger band also aligns with the 50-week MA placed at 24758.
Agencies The region of 25,000–25,150, which includes the 200-DMA on the daily chart and a key support, is being tested. If this zone is violated convincingly, it may trigger a deeper corrective move. Conversely, any bounce would remain vulnerable unless the index reclaims the 25,650 levels.
Given the steep correction and a mildly oversold setup on the daily chart, the coming week, shortened by the Republic Day holiday on Monday, may see a tentative start with a possible technical rebound.
However, volatility is expected to stay elevated as Tuesday also marks the monthly F&O expiry. Overall, as the markets would open after a gap of one day, they would also adjust to the prevailing global trade setup.
Immediate resistance levels are placed at 25,320 and 25,650, while supports exist at 25,000 and 24,800.The weekly RSI stands at 44.47 and remains in a neutral zone; however, it has marked a new 14-period low along with price, indicating no divergence. The weekly MACD is bearish and is below its signal line, reinforcing bearish momentum. A long black candle has emerged on the weekly chart, signifying strong selling pressure and a breakdown from the prior consolidation.
Pattern-wise, Nifty has broken below the falling trendline, which typically has bearish implications. T
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