Mizani Africa opinion poll shows a tight Othaya parliamentary race with incumbent Wambugu Wainaina leading at 29.2% and Antony Gitonga of DCP close behind at 28.7% Party support data indicates DCP leads overall in Othaya with 38.7% against UDA’s 32%, giving Gitonga potential momentum The Othaya race will increasingly be defined by shifting party dynamics, voter indecision and strong campaign messaging Didacus Malowa, a journalist at TUKO.co.ke, brings over three years of experience covering politics and current affairs in Kenya.
The race for the Othaya Constituency parliamentary seat has intensified after a new opinion poll positioned the contest as a tight duel.
Incumbent Othaya MP Wambugu Wainaina during a past meeting within the parliament building. Photo: Wambugu Wainaina.
Source: Facebook According to the latest survey released by Mizani Africa, the battle is effectively narrowing into a two-horse race.
Incumbent Wambugu Wainaina, who is allied to the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA), leads with 29.2%, closely followed by Kenya Scouts Association (KSA) international commissioner Antony Gitonga, linked to former deputy president Rigathi Gachagua’s Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP), at 28.7%.
The figures show a margin of just 0.5 percentage points between the top two contenders, signalling a highly competitive contest ahead of the next election.
As per the new survey, 15.4% of respondents remain undecided, a significant bloc that could swing the outcome depending on how campaigns unfold and how voters align ahead of the 2027 General Election.
What will influence voting in Othaya? However, beyond individual popularity, the party landscape appears to be reshaping the race, amid the DCP outfit’s growing momentum
In Othaya, party preference data from the poll by Mizani Africa shows DCP holding a lead in overall party support at 38.7%, compared to UDA’s 32.0%.
This further suggests that Gitonga has a potential structural advantage, provided party loyalists consolidate behind him.
If DCP supporters translate their party preference into votes for their candidate, the momentum could narrow the gap further or even tilt the balance into an outright win for Gitonga.
Despite the advantages, the incumbent Wainaina benefits from visibility, established political networks, and institutional presence built over his tenure.
Wainaina’s path to retention likely depends on his ability to retain core UDA loyalists while expanding support among independent and undecided voters.
How did Gitonga react to Mizani poll? Reacting to the survey findings, Gitonga acknowledged the numbers while expressing cautious optimism about the race.
He noted that while opinion polls provide a snapshot of current sentiment, the election outcome will ultimately reflect voters’ priorities on leadership and representation.
“While I cannot fully vouch for the accuracy of these polls, one thing is certain: the next Othaya MP election will not be about personalities, but about competency and ideals. It will be about #competency; which leader has the skills, education, and ability to effectively communicate, debate, legislate, and lobby for resources for our people. That moment of decision is coming. Indeed, Othaya will be great again,” he stated. KSA international commissioner Antony Gitonga addresses a past event. Photo: Antony Gitonga.
Source: Facebook Gitonga framed the contest around key themes, arguing that the next leader of Othaya should be measured on competency and public service.
He emphasised that leadership should be assessed on skills, education, and the ability to effectively communicate, debate, legislate, and advocate for resources that benefit residents.
The KSA international commissioner also highlighted public interest as central to the race, arguing that development decisions must reflect community needs.
Gitonga further pointed to safeguarding life and condemning violence, referencing past incidents that have sparked public concern.
Is Gachagua losing support in Mt Kenya? In a related report, political realignments within Mt Kenya gathered pace after Gachagua launched his DCP about eight months ago.
Initially, many leaders from the region rallied behind the new outfit, with analysts predicting it could dominate the vote-rich bloc at the expense of the ruling UDA.
However, recent developments showed several politicians distancing themselves from Gachagua.
Key figures who once backed him, including former MPs Ngunjiri Wambugu and Kimani Ngunjiri, alongside current legislators Peter Irungu, Mary Wamaua, Gathoni Wamuchomba and George Koimburi, shifted allegiance or went silent.
Source: TUKO.co.ke