The sudden U.S. military strike on Venezuela and the capture of its long-serving president, Nicolas Maduro, marks the most dramatic American intervention in Latin America since the 1989 invasion of Panama. While President Donald Trump publicly justified the operation as a law-enforcement action against a “narco-state,” many analysts believe the motivations run far deeper. Venezuela’s vast oil reserves, its strategic alignment with U.S. rivals and Trump’s broader vision of American dominance in the Western Hemisphere all appear to have played decisive roles.
The Trump administration framed the strike as the culmination of a long campaign against Maduro’s alleged involvement in international drug trafficking. Maduro was indicted in U.S. federal court in 2020 on charges of narco-terrorism, corruption and conspiracy, accused of running the so-called “Cartel de Los Soles” to funnel tonnes of cocaine into the U.S.. A $50 million bounty had been placed on him, and U.S. officials repeatedly described Venezuela as a criminal state captured by drug traffickers. Following the operation, Trump and Attorney General Pam Bondi emphasised accountability and justice, portraying Maduro’s capture as a victory for American law enforcement and a blow against the drug trade harming U.S. communities. In this narrative, the strike was not a war of choice but an extraordinary policing action against an outlaw regime.
Yet this explanation has not convinced many observers. Data from the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime shows that Venezuela is not a cocaine-producing country, and a last year’s U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration report on drug trafficking focuses on Ecuador, Central America and Mexico, with little emphasis on Venezuela. These inconsistencies have fuelled skepticism that narcotics enforcement alone could not justify such a sweeping military intervention.
The big oil prize A more compelling motive, many argue, lies beneath Venezuelan soil. The country holds the largest proven oil reserves in the world, estimated at over 300 billion barrels, roughly 17 percent of global known reserves. This dwarfs the reserves of the U.S. and exceeds those of Saudi Arabia and Russia too. Despite this abundance, Venezuela currently produces only about 1 percent of global oil supply, a collapse from its peak in the late 1990s.
Years of mismanagement, underinvestment, technical challenges linked to Venezuela’s heavy, tar-like crude and sweeping U.S. sanctions have crippled the sector. As U.S. oil production is expected to plateau after more than a decade of rapid growth, future global demand could make access to new, non-Middle Eastern supply increasingly important. Energy experts note that a Venezuela reintegrated into the global oil system under a U.S.-friendly government would represent a significant strategic asset. Maduro himself long accused Washington of seeking to seize Venezuela’s oil by force, framing U.S. pressure as resource imperialism rather than concern over democracy or drugs.
Strategic rivalry in America’s backyard Beyond oil, Venezuela’s geopolitical alignment has made it a
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