A simulation by Toronto epidemiologists shows how acting before cases mount will make it even easier to manage
By now, most people have heard it’s important to “flatten the curve” when it comes to COVID-19 infections — and two Toronto-based researchers say the earlier we act, the flatter that curve will be.
David Fisman and Ashleigh Tuite, epidemiologists at the University of Toronto’s Dalla Lana School of Public Health, have created a simulation of how early control measures can greatly slow the spread of the novel coronavirus and ease the burden on the health-care system, potentially saving many lives.
These control measures — like cancelling large events, testing aggressively for the virus and isolating suspected cases — can avoid spikes in COVID-19 cases, the researchers say.
Even though Canada has relatively few confirmed infections — more than 150 as of Friday — the pair says it’s not too early to keep it from getting worse.
“If we can preemptively get people to do social distancing, the much easier we’ll be able to control this,” said Tuite.
The simulator, which uses global infection data, lets you control the start date of the outbreak and when control measures are implemented. You can also see how the infection rate — the basic reproduction number,