The dream run finally has concerned an end. Since today, as the Treasurer confessed, economic crisis is now inescapable, our very first in practically 3 years.
After a fairly mild 0.3 percent contraction in the three months to the end of March, the economy is now poised for a significant plunge this quarter. And, according to the books, a recession is specified as two successive quarters of contraction or, for those who like to sugar-coat the discomfort, “negative growth”.
But what if, through some analytical abnormality, the numbers somehow had handled to stay in positive area for the March quarter and all the heartache, insecurity and angst was packed into the June quarter alone, where the economy is on track to shrink by a frightening 8.5 percent.
That was a distinct possibility until the figures were launched on Wednesday early morning. Had that occurred, technically we might declare to have actually avoided an economic crisis, that Australian exceptionalism had actually thrived yet once again.
How could that be?
For a start, our trade balance has actually done very well this year.
True, our iron ore exports were reasonably excellent. The most significant element was that our imports dropped as a tanking dome