Bogota, Colombia — Gustavo Petro took workplace nearly precisely one year back on a pledge to bring “overall peace” to Colombia by working out straight with the armed groups that have actually planted violence throughout the nation for years.
The Colombian president has actually dealt with a series of severe problems along the method: A variety of rare peace handle armed groups have actually broken down, and 2023 has actually seen more than 56 massacres up until now as attacks continue to increase in the countryside.
On Thursday, after almost 10 months of settlements with the South American country’s biggest staying rebel group, the National Liberation Army (ELN), the federal government will take a substantial action forward as a bilateral ceasefire is set to come into impact.
If the ceasefire holds, it will be the very first significant triumph for Petro’s peace strategies.
“It is a triumph in the peace procedure,” stated Francisco Daza, planner of the peace, post-conflict and post-war research study program at the Peace and Reconciliation Foundation (PARES), a non-profit that keeps track of the application of peace procedures in Colombia.
“It is an unusual win in the middle of a series of obstacles,” Daza informed Al Jazeera, consisting of “the murders of social leaders, massacres and other elements that have actually not favoured federal government policy”.
The ceasefire
The ceasefire will last 180 days and might be extended by a recently developed, multilateral confirmation system comprised of Colombian security forces, ELN members, spiritual group agents, and authorities from the United Nations and Colombia’s federal government.
In public declarations previously today, the ELN revealed that it would stop “offending operations” in the areas under its control, such as Arauca, Choco, Antioquia and parts of Norte de Santander, when the ceasefire enters into result.
A delegation of ELN leaders and arbitrators are anticipated to go to an event with Petro in Bogota on Thursday– the very first time ELN leaders, most of whom have actually remained in exile in Cuba due to Colombian arrest warrants, have actually been welcomed to a public occasion given that the group’s starting.
For some observers, the success of the ceasefire is far from ensured.
Previous talks in between the federal government and the rebel group have actually collapsed an overall of 7 times considering that the ELN was established in 1964, most just recently in 2019 when the group bombed an authorities academy in Bogota in an attack that eliminated 21 individuals.
In January, the ELN rejected becoming part of a ceasefire with a handful of armed groups that Petro revealed, requiring his federal government to backtrack on the New Year’s Eve statement.
“The history and structure of the ELN leaves doubts about its determination to abide by the ceasefire,” stated Daza at PARES.
He informed Al Jazeera that if more severe components within the ELN break the offer, it might collapse completely. The ELN is comprised of 8 semi-autonomous “fronts”, or local battalions, and counts an approximated 2,000 to 5,000 fighters. Each front responses to a so-called “Central Command” management structure, they likewise have functional self-reliance.
On Monday, the ELN launched a public declaration that stated all of its battalions will follow the ceasefire offer that its main command accepted, though they likewise stated “protective operations” versus other armed groups will continue.
“It works as a federation,” Daza stated of the group. “The ‘Western Front’, for instance, does not operate the like the ‘Eastern Front’, and this might make complex compliance with the ceasefire procedures.
“It is a difficulty for the whole organisation to comply in a unified way,” he stated.
Tempered hopes
For locals of areas where the rebels preserve an existence, the stakes of the historical offer might not be greater.
“We live like abduct victims,” stated Marta, president of a neighborhood board in the Bajo San Juan location of Colombia’s western Choco department, describing a strike that ELN fighters by force troubled the area for 2 weeks, starting on July 4. She asked that her surname not be utilized for worry of reprisals from armed groups.
Hopes run high in locations afflicted by dispute, another Choco citizen, Marlon Bebedo, who works at the Human Rights Network of the Pacific, likewise stated there are doubts.
Bebedo stated though battling in between armed groups has actually reduced considering that settlements started, locals have actually heard unsatisfied pledges of peace from federal governments in Bogota previously– and the Petro administration has actually been no exception, he informed Al Jazeera.
In January, the Petro federal government participated in a series of “humanitarian caravans” in combination with regional leaders to find out about the humanitarian requirements of neighborhoods impacted by dispute.
Bebedo stated, “There has actually been an absence of dedication on the part of the federal government to comply with the humanitarian arrangements that were guaranteed in Choco”– particularly deliveries of food, standard medications and medical attention, as well as more federal government resources for victims of violence and displacement.
“Unfortunately, pledges were made to the neighborhood in combination with regional leaders,” stated Bebedo. “And not satisfying those pledges has actually worsened doubt and likewise harmed the reliability of those leaders.”
‘Serious obstacles’
The federal government’s ceasefire with the ELN just covers battling in between the rebel group and the Colombian security forces, not fights in between the ELN and other criminal armed groups.
In Choco, the ELN is actively at war with the Gaitanista Self-Defence Forces conservative paramilitary group (AGC, according to its Spanish-language acronym), which the federal government typically describes as the “Gulf Clan”.
Carlos Velandia, a previous ELN leader who now functions as an expert for the Petro administration as part of the peace procedure, called the ceasefire “a historical accomplishment” however likewise acknowledged that “application will deal with severe difficulties”.
Velandia stated battling in between the AGC and ELN has the possible to weaken the ceasefire needs to it lead to human rights offenses versus people who reside in impacted locations.
“I have specific issues about this in Choco and in Arauca,” he stated, describing another department in Colombia’s northeast, on the border with Venezuela.
“AGC is not in settlements with the federal government and might see this as a chance to end up being more aggressive versus the ELN in an effort to protect more area,” stated Velandia, including that comparable dispute might likewise break out in between ELN rebels and Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) dissidents in Arauca.
FARC dissidents declined the nation’s 2016 peace treaty with the group and have actually declined to set their weapons.
Versus that background, Daza stated the ceasefire was a favorable primary step, however “just a partial service to continuous dispute”.
Neighborhood participation essential
The specialists whom Al Jazeera spoke with all indicated a requirement to consist of the neighborhoods impacted by dispute in the peacebuilding procedure.
The Petro administration has actually called civilian involvement important to accomplishing genuine peace, and both the ELN and the federal government have actually assured to increase their efforts on that front in the coming weeks when the ceasefire remains in location.
UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Turk likewise stated after a fact-finding objective to Colombia in January that “settlements require to consist of a particular concentrate on the victims and impacted neighborhoods, with their involvement ensured”.
“It will be vital for ladies and native neighborhoods to be able to get involved meaningfully in peace talks,” Turk stated.
According to Velandia, the previous ELN commander-turned-government advisor, “the federal government has a chance to make great” on its pledges. “The very first 30 days will be important … to see if all the rebel ‘fronts’ can follow the contract,” he stated.
ELN leader Nicolas Rodriguez, referred to as Gabino, has likewise stated that “the most tough part of the procedure will be unifying numerous various individuals.”
In the meantime, Colombia’s federal government has actually revealed hope that the ELN ceasefire will be extended which settlements towards an irreversible peace treaty with the group will achieve success. Bogota, together with United Nations agents and Catholic churches in impacted locations, likewise will be associated with the tracking and enforcement of the ceasefire.
Back in Choco, Bebedo stated that without comparable arrangements with other armed groups, homeowners stay “enthusiastic however sceptical”.
“What we desire, from afflicted areas, is that all armed groups participate in a contract to advance towards real peace,” he informed Al Jazeera. “That is what we desire them to reveal the Colombian individuals.”