Released on March 18 th, 2020 |
by Steve Hanley
March 18 th, 2020 by Steve Hanley
Update: For a more favorable take than the one below, also see: “ Progress On COVID-19 Treatment? Appears like It.“
Epidemiologists at Imperial College in London released a report on Monday that surprised government officials in the UK and the United States.
Image credit: Imperial College https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/196234/ covid19- imperial-researchers-model-likely-impact/
The research study has actually not yet been peer evaluated, however authorities in both the UK and United States federal government have actually taken the caution from the researchers to heart. That is the primary reason the president of the US has actually stopped informing individuals the infection is a scam committed by Democrats or George Soros and started treating the subject with the severity it is worthy of.
The findings were released in the 9th report from the WHO Collaborating Center for Transmittable Disease Modelling within the MRC Centre for Global Contagious Illness Analysis, J-IDEA, Imperial College London. Teacher Neil Ferguson, head of the MRC GIDA group and director of the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Situation Analytics (J-IDEA), states:
” The world is facing the most major public health crisis in generations. Here we supply concrete estimates of the scale of the hazard nations now deal with. We use the latest quotes of severity to reveal that policy strategies which aim to alleviate the epidemic might cut in half deaths and reduce peak health care need by two-thirds, however that this will not be enough to prevent health systems being overwhelmed. More intensive, and socially disruptive interventions will for that reason be required to reduce transmission to low levels. It is likely such measures– most significantly, large scale social distancing– will require to be in place for many months, maybe till a vaccine appears.”
Ferguson told CNN that a copy of the report was offered to the Trump administration over the weekend and shared with the CDC on Monday.
Modeling Is An Inexact Science
CNN points out that epidemiological studies are based on modeling from readily available information and depend on assumptions that can later prove incorrect. Mitigation “focuses on slowing however not always stopping epidemic spread,” while suppression, “intends to reverse epidemic growth, reducing case numbers to low levels and maintaining that situatio