( Reuters) – China’s economy diminished 6.8%in January-March from a year earlier, main information showed on Friday, the very first such decline considering that at least 1992 when quarterly gdp (GDP) records began.
A street cleaner strolls by Beijing’s Central Downtown throughout morning rush hour as the spread of the brand-new coronavirus disease (COVID-19) continues in China, April 17, 2020, REUTERS/Thomas Peter
The historic depression in the world’s second-largest economy comes after efforts to consist of the coronavirus, which first emerged in China late in 2015, shut down factories, transportation and shopping center.
KEY POINTS
Q1 GDP -6.8%y/y (f’ cast -6.5%, Q4 6.0%)
Q1 GDP -9.8%q/q (f’ cast -9.9%, Q4 1.5%)
March industrial output -1.1%y/y (f’ cast -7.3%, Jan-Feb -135%)
March retail sales -158%y/y (f’ cast -10%, Jan-Feb -205%)
Jan-March repaired asset financial investment -161%y/y (f’ cast-151%, Jan-Feb -245%)
Jan-March home financial investment -7.7%y/y (Jan-Feb -163%)
COMMENTARY:
MASAAKI KANNO, CHIEF ECONOMIST, SONY FINANCIAL HOLDINGS, TOKYO
” It was currently understood that there would be a sharp contraction in the first quarter, so the point is what healing there will be from the April-June quarter.”
” Japan and the United States are likely to have big unfavorable gdp figures in April-June, so if China will recover, I believe it will become a source of intend to the world economy. The problem is that China’s external need will remain inadequate, so we can’t have hopes of sufficient growth based just on domestic demand.”
JULIAN EVANS-PRITCHARD, SENIOR CHINA ECONOMIC EXPERT, CAPITAL ECONOMICS
” GDP contracted in Q1 for the first time since China started releasing quarterly information in1992 The regular monthly information recommends that activity improved in March but stayed weak even as efforts to consist of COVID-19 were unwinded.
” The March information contributes to broader signs that China’s economy is past the worst. The healing will most likely continue to underwhelm. The high frequency indicators we track recommend that, after a preliminary bounce as containment measures were reduced, the recovery in activity has actually considering that slowed to a crawl.
” One issue is that domestic need is being kept back by labour market pressures: the unemployment rate stayed raised in March, and per capita earnings decreased outright in Q1. On the other hand, the double-digit decline in commercial sales for exports last month adds to signs that external headwinds are heightening. China is in for a drawn-out recovery.”
ATSUSHI TAKEDA, PRIMARY ECONOMIST, ITOCHU FINANCIAL RESEARCH STUDY INSTITUTE, TOKYO
” Retail and repaired asset financial investment visited 20%in January and February, so the GDP wasn’t an unanticipated figure.”
” What’s next in focus is what the pace of healing will be in the April-June and July-September quarters. The United States, Europe and Japan’s economies will drop sharply in the second quarter, so while I think domestic demand will recuperate, exports are likely to fall sharply and the power of the recovery will be compromised.”
HUA CHANGCHUN, CHIEF ECONOMIST, GUOTAI JUNAN SECURITIES, SHENZHEN, CHINA
” Q1 data indicate