Modi Claims 2004 to 2014 Was India’s ‘Lost Decade’. Is That True?

The term ‘lost years’ was utilized by the prime minister in parliament to characterise the 2004-14 years. This term entered into style globally over twenty years earlier in the advancement literature, since in 1980-2000, both Sub-Saharan African and Latin American economies experienced nearly no per capita earnings (PCI) development, so that in 2000 the PCI was hardly above the 1980 level. Can the exact same description fit India in 2004-14? The realities recommend otherwise. 1. The economy grew 8% annually in 2004-14, regardless of an international recession in 2008, whose results continued. Population was growing 1.3% pa, so PCI grew 6.7% pa usually over those 10 years. How was this accomplished? The list below truths would describe this unmatched development, never ever accomplished in the past, nor continual after 2015. 2. Throughout 2004-5 and 2011-12, the economy was producing 7.5 million brand-new non-agri tasks every year (52 million brand-new tasks over 7 years). That is why youth and overall joblessness were low. 3. This allowed over 5 million individuals to leave farming each year. The share of employees in farming had actually been falling given that 1973-4, however the outright numbers had actually constantly been increasing. For the very first time in India’s history, the outright numbers in farming fell after 2004-5 (quickly till 2014, slower ever since till 2019). 4. A criticism frequently heard is that inflation was high over that duration. Non-farm task production throughout 2004-2012 led to tightening up of the rural labour market, raising open market earnings, in genuine terms; this procedure was supplemented by the intro of MGNREGA and increasing MSP. As a cog impact, city earnings likewise increased in genuine terms (regardless of increasing inflation). The record on genuine incomes (after changing for inflation) is far exceptional to the current duration. Hardship fell as genuine incomes were increasing then. 5. In addition, as an outcome of non-farm task production and genuine wage boosts, genuine personal last usage expense increased. 2004-12 saw a sharp enhancement in poverty-reduction. Not just was GDP development the fastest ever, however there was, once again for the very first time ever, an outright fall in the varieties of the bad by almost 20 mn each year over 2004-5 to 2011-12 (by the Tendulkar hardship line)– an accomplishment of shocking (Chinese) percentages. While their share of population had actually been falling till 2004, never ever prior to had the outright variety of bad fallen given that 1973-4(other than partially in between 1993-4 and 2004-5 by hardly 18 million by the Lakdawala hardship line). 6. The open joblessness rate of the informed was falling after 2004-5 to 2011-12(based upon the NSO’s labour force studies for those years). Youth joblessness has actually more than doubled under the existing program. Contrast this extraordinary accomplishment with the last 8 yea
Learn more