By Enda McClafferty
BBC News NI political editor
Image caption, Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald is hoping her event will advise the most seats in the meeting election
Within minutes of taking over his meeting seat for the principle time in 1998, Sinn Féin’s Martin McGuinness pointed his finger at leader Ian Paisley and declared: “We have arrived.”
He warned the Democratic Unionist Celebration leader “swap changed into coming” and there changed into nothing the DUP can also develop about it.
Some 24 years on, if the polls are appropriate, that swap can also reach on 5 May per chance well per chance also.
Sinn Féin is expected to interchange the DUP as the highest event at Stormont and advise the world of industrial of first minister.
But when the hand of history changed into hovering above her shoulder, Sinn Féin’s deputy leader Michelle O’Neill wasn’t exhibiting it final week as she boarded the Strangford Lough ferry on the campaign path.
For the 10 minute crossing from Portaferry to Strangford, she truly useful her focal level someplace else.
Image source, Reuters
Image caption, Michelle O’Neill could be in line to changed into first minister
“There could be no question it’ll even be a necessary election for historic capabilities, but this election is ready the future and I want to ship on the things that topic appropriate now,” she mentioned.
“The priorities for me after the election could be to ship for the successfully being provider, training and going thru the attach-of-living disaster and for that reason I judge this election is also a game changer.”
But this election is maybe no longer about the highest winner, but the smallest loser as every Sinn Féin and the DUP are expected to shed some seats.
Sinn Féin is also on the cusp of breaking original floor but it’s miles maybe no longer on account of a surge in votes, but quite a dip in the performance of its political competitors the DUP.
That has been mirrored in Sinn Féin’s campaign approach.
Steering distinct of controversy and offering no ammunition for the DUP to energise unionist voters has been a key focal level.
Keeping off talk of taking the principle minister position or prioritising a vote on Irish unification post-election are two traps Sinn Féin has tried anxious to steer distinct of.
Requested about the aptitude of a Sinn Féin first minister in Belfast and a Sinn Féin taoiseach (Irish top minister) in Dublin riding the case for a united Eire, Michelle O’Neill performed it safe.
She insisted “there would handiest be constitutional swap right here when the folks right here reach to a resolution” as specified by the Exact Friday Agreement.
But Sinn Féin knows it has a fight to repeat its election performance of 2017 when the event secured 27 seats in the 90-seat meeting, making it the 2d-highest event in the abet of the DUP, which won 28.
Claiming three of the 5 seats in four diversified constituencies alongside with four in Belfast West changed into a masterclass in vote administration.
This time round transfers could be key if the event hopes to retain these seats.
The Finucane ingredient
That explains why Belfast North MP John Finucane fronted up the event’s election broadcast with accurate a minor position for Ms O’Neill.
The single transferable vote (STV) machine in Northern Eire ability voters jog parties in uncover of opt and their lower preferences can reach into play once their top opt candidate is either elected or eradicated.
Sinn Féin hopes the Finucane ingredient, alongside with his middle-class and inappropriate-neighborhood credentials, can also assign them in the marketplace for transfers which have previously been beyond the event’s reach.
Mr Finucane is a solicitor who won the Westminster seat of Belfast North from the DUP in the 2019 UK total election. It changed into the principle time a non-unionist candidate had ever won the seat in a total election.
Image source, Pa/Liam McBurney
Image caption, John Finucane fronted up the event’s election broadcast
Commentator Chris Donnelly believes Sinn Féin’s tactic is one which could also work.
“It is luminous for Sinn Féin to possess the campaign about the attach-of-living disaster on memoir of they decide to enchantment to middle-floor voters and to comfortable nationalists to present them transfers,” he knowledgeable BBC News NI.
“Because of this their most middle-floor pleasant politician has been front and centre in the campaign.”
He added that while voters from the opposite foremost nationalist event, the SDLP, “don’t switch to Sinn Féin in mountainous numbers, they is also incentivised” with the likelihood of taking the principle minister position from the DUP, and that “can also possess the whole difference”.
Foyle shake-up
But when Sinn Féin has a weak point, then it’ll be in Foyle the attach the event eradicated two high profile meeting individuals in Martina Anderson and Karen Mullan and replaced them with two political newcomers without a electoral be conscious file.
It changed into fragment of a shake-up in the constituency, which contains the metropolis of Londonderry, after a string of glum election results in which the event lost 5 councillors and an MP.
Image source, Pacemaker/BBC
Image caption, Martina Anderson and Karen Mullan have been deselected by Sinn Féin in Foyle
Aoife Moore, a political correspondent with the Irish Examiner, is from Derry and first broke the memoir about the Sinn Féin shake up.
She mentioned some all thru the event soundless felt smash about what happened.
“There are a range of anxious emotions in Derry Sinn Féin and in particular at how Martina Anderson changed into treated,” she mentioned.
“Other folks respected her for the life she gave to republican politics and folks have been in fact upset, and we saw that in the response from her household.
“But Sinn Féin don’t develop something else with out planning and they also knew this changed into going to occur but they determined to switch forward with it anyway.”
She also pointed to the absence of some of Sinn Féin’s key figures in Foyle from the native campaign as very telling.
But she added: “The event needed to behave and is now privately confident of keeping the two seats.”
Sinn Féin is fielding a total of 34 candidates – most of them females – across the 18 constituencies.