LONDON/CHICAGO (Reuters) – Anticipating “peak infection” is often predestined to fail. However that’s not to state it is meaningless.
Lots of health, policy and economic experts worldwide are now attempting to do just this with the epidemic of coronavirus disease dispersing from China. They are working together to map the curve of the outbreak, however caution there are too many holes in the information to dependably forecast when it will reach its peak – when the variety of new daily cases begins to decrease consistently.
” If any person informs you when it will peak, it’s not worth it,” stated Michael Osterholm, an infectious disease expert at the University of Minnesota in the United States.
Robin Thompson, a mathematical epidemiology specialist at Britain’s Oxford University who has published forecasts about this break out and is actively working on upgrading them, concurs.
” In a situation like this where there are a lot of unknowns, it’s reasonable to say it’s difficult to predict with any sort of accuracy at all when the peak is going to take place,” he stated.
Undoubtedly, the China Daily paper reported this week that Zhong Nanshan, an expert at the Chinese