Our failure to prepare for an outbreak that epidemiologists have repeatedly warned was coming is a reminder that humans are not very good at thinking themselves into the future, including on the issue of climate, writes Don Pittis.
Now that the COVID-19 threat is upon us, scientists and innovators are pulling out the stops to find ways of coping. That rush of invention is no surprise to historians — not just of science, but economics, too.
In the 1620s, living through the plague inspired economist and polymath William Petty to devise a system to count the cost of future calamity.
Part of the “political arithmetic” he invented includes concepts we use today to try to imagine how much it’s worth spending now to prevent something worse from happening several years down the road, said Canadian economist Aidan Vining.
Unfortunately, our failure to prepare for an outbreak that epidemiologists have repeatedly warned was coming is a reminder that humans are not very good at thinking themselves into the future.
The climate lesson
Economists I spoke to said that society’s blinkered approach to the future risk of disease provides a lesson for our failure to address the potentially catastrophic effects of climate change. In fact, history shows that the people who do think ahead are often ridiculed.
Vining said that in the 1840s, one follower of Petty’s cost-benefit analysis, Edwin Chadwick, was known as “the most hated man in England,” for promoting public health spending that Chadwick insisted would save lives and improve living conditions for millions.
“Why? Because he wanted to build sewer systems, and the elite were so opposed because of the public spending it would involve,” said Vining, professor emeritus at Simon Fraser University.
As it turns out, Chadwick lived to see his plans put in place, helping to lead the way in a global public health movement that ultimately saved uncounted lives and money.
But apart from people like Chadwick, behavioural economists have shown that even when we know we would benefit from worrying a bit more about our long-term future, humans are hard-wired for short-term thinking.
Brain scans show how deeply ingrained short-termism is, demonstrating that wh