Researchers have estimated that the number of children in the United States who spent time in a hospital with COVID-19 is likely higher than officials had previously thought. And the projected numbers of severe cases in children may overtax the health system, they warn.
According to a study paper newly published in the Journal of Public Health Management & Practice, officials may have been underestimating the impact of SARS-CoV-2 on children.
Researchers from the Women’s Institute for Independent Social Enquiry in Olney, MD, the University of South Florida in Tampa, and the University of the West Indies in Barbados supplied the calculations for the paper.
The investigators’ estimates were informed by the number of U.S. children who attended a pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) through April 6, 2020, as well as by studies of the COVID-19 epidemic in China during January–February 2020.
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Their projections also suggest that, in some scenarios, U.S. pediatric health care services may well become overwhelmed by the number of ill children requiring care.
Official data indicate that in the U.S., 74 children received care at PICUs between March 18 and April 6 due to COVID-19.
Based on these numbers, the researchers estimate that “2,381 children in the community [contracted] SARS-CoV-2 for each single child […] admitted to the PICU.”
“Overall, […] an estimated 176,190 children aged 0 to 17 years” had likely contracted SARS-CoV-2 by April 6, the investigators write.
In their projections, the investigators indicate that in a “best-case” scenario, in which 1 in 200 children in the U.S. contract SARS-