Alexandre Pantoja is getting home. When Pantoja enter the octagon for Saturday’s UFC 301 centerpiece in Rio de Janeiro, he’ll be the very first Brazilian champ to safeguard their title in their home nation considering that Amanda Nunes combated Raquel Pennington in May 2018. That was a victorious night for Nunes, and Pantoja’s group certainly anticipates the exact same, however is surprise opposition Steve Erceg set to play the supreme spoiler? Mixed martial arts Fighting’s Alexander K. Lee, Jed Meshew, and Mike Heck collect at the roundtable to go over the ripples an Erceg win might develop in the UFC timeline, plus what else to search for on a subtle pay-per-view offering. 1. Where would a Steve Erceg title win rank amongst the most not likely go to a belt? Meshew: First off, who the (Mike) Heck is Steve Erceg? I understand a Vincenzo Erceg, UFC flyweight competitor and the pride of Western Australia, however I’ve never ever become aware of this Steve fellow. And let’s be truthful, a “Steve” Erceg might never ever win a title. Vincenzo Erceg– or “Vinnie Cigs” as the kids understand him– now that guy is an extremely possible champ due to the laws of nominative determinism. Second, since I’m a capital-J Journalist, I crunched the numbers to offer you a specific response. In the contemporary UFC, 4 fighters have actually handled to win a title in their very first 4 battles in the promo, not consisting of fighters who won inaugural titles (believe Carla Esparza off The Ultimate Fighter or Ronda Rousey being stated UFC champ from Strikeforce): Zhang Weili, Brock Lesnar, Jiri Prochazka, and Alex Pereira. And it’s quite safe to state taking a look at that list, Vinnie is the most not likely possible champ. Brock had nearly no MMA experience however he was the most significant star in the promo, so his course to the title was exceptionally most likely. Comparable for Pereira who had such an integrated story with then-champion Israel Adesanya that everybody understood it would take place. Prochazka and Zhang are various stories because they didn’t get in with an integrated ticket to a title shot, however both were currently amongst the very best worldwide in their weight classes and had considerable assistance behind them. None of this holds true for Erceg. Up until Erceg made his UFC launching 10 months back, a huge bulk of the MMA world didn’t understand who he was. Even after he beat David Dvorak to make a leading 15 ranking, the majority of people still didn’t. Truthfully, I’m unsure individuals understand who he is now. If he pulls this off on Saturday, the male will be an over night feeling 10 months in the making. Lee: It would be a stunner. 5 years down the roadway, it may not be with the advantage of hindsight. Erceg debuted in the UFC with little excitement at UFC 289 in June 2023, actioning in on brief notification for Matt Schnell at UFC 289 before KO’ing Schnell 9 months later on (in between was a choice win over Alessandro Costa I’m wagering couple of keep in mind). “Astro Boy” is as simple a fighter as you’ll discover, and even as he’s continued to develop a 12-fight win streak, our eyes can’t rather think what we’re seeing. Excellent addition to the flyweight lineup? Sure. UFC title competitor? Where did that originated from? The UFC required a Brazilian champ to heading its return to Rio and Alexandre Pantoja required an opposition who he had not currently beaten several times, so in actions Vinnie Cigs. Pantoja is naturally a comfy preferred heading into his 2nd title defense, holding wins over basically every significant flyweight in the leading 10. If Erceg is being sent out as a sacrificial lamb for the sake of a home crowd pop, then so be it. I simply believe there’s a great chance Erceg is the genuine offer. By that I indicate, not just might Erceg manage the upset, he may rattle off a couple of title defenses of his own. I’m cheating and leaving this response open for now, due to the fact that we may end up looking back at this extraordinary capper to Erceg’s very first 4 UFC battles and understanding it was just the start. Heck: It would have to be quite high up there? Matt Serra arriving off of a truth program and after that beating Georges St-Pierre in the most significant upset of all-time needs to take the No. 1 area, however excellent ol’ Vinnie Cigs might definitely discover his face on the Mt. Rushmore of not likely UFC title runs. As I’ve stated a million times on different programs, meritocracy does not matter in the UFC– a minimum of, for the many part– however accessibility can usually be your friend. Steve Erceg has actually done whatever he’s required to do. He’s beaten ranked challengers and has actually ended up battles in outstanding style, plus he did so with impressive timing due to the truth that Pantoja required a dance partner. While this might be high up on the not likely runs note now, something informs me a future roundtable– perhaps even later on this year– will have a comparable concern. Why? Since accessibility is your friend. 2. Which Brazilian fighter will have the most significant minute? Heck: This is a hard concern with many on the card, and while the simple response is Pantoja, the vibes continue to inform me we might be in for a stunning conclusion at UFC 301. I’ll take the next milky response and go with “The King of Rio.” When Run This Town strikes the speakers, the arena will come unglued. And while Jonathan “The Silence Behind the Violence” Martinez is a strong skill, Jose Aldo has actually made his hay in beating fighters who have an extraordinary leg kicking video game. Not just is he understood as The King of Rio, he’s the King of the Legkickers. I think he gets his hand raised in, what will likely be, his last UFC battle. Meshew: The just possible response for this is Jose Aldo. Pantoja might be headlining the card, however this entire ships sinks without Aldo there to juice the crowd up. To state Aldo is precious in Rio resembles stating Conor McGregor is “type of popular” or Jon Jones is “a little frightened” of Tom Aspinall– it downplays the indicate absurdity. To take an expression from Paddy Pimblett, win or lose, Aldo is “going to blow the roofing off the gaffe!” And great god ready, if he really wins– maybe in highlight-reel style– then he can leap the fence and be paraded around Farmasi Arena on the shoulders of his compatriots. The storybook ending one of the real all-time greats is worthy of. Lee: Aldo has the possibility to do something unique, however there’s a part of me that is constantly going to be reluctant to get too ecstatic about a fighter returning from an expected retirement strictly for organization factors. (Aldo is finishing the last battle of his UFC offer so he’s totally free to possibly return to boxing.) I’ll go in a various instructions here. If Aldo is the hero most fans in the structure will be cheering for, most of jeers will be targeted at Ihor Potieria, a.k.a. “The Shogun Slayer.” Let’s not forget the UFC’s latest see to Rio didn’t simply end on the down note of Jamahal Hill beating Glover Teixeira. Before that, the renowned profession of Mauricio Rua pertained to an extreme end when Potieria completed him with strikes in an initial bout and after that continued to commemorate in a way that didn’t endear him to the regional crowd. You can wager the chants of uh vai morrer will be loud and clear when Potieria makes the walkout for his battle with Michel Pereira, to the point that they might wish to boost security. Due to the fact that make no error about it, Pereira is out to avenge Shogun, and if he does not get it carried out in the cage, it might get awful in these streets. Pereira is the skilled showman and if he can design his method to a knockout of Potieria, he’ll be the most well known Brazilian on the card, even if Pantoja and Aldo are victorious. 3. What is your sleeper story for UFC 301? Lee: Now that I’ve meant a best-case situation where the leading Brazilian names on the card all author remarkable minutes, let’s take a look at the other hand: What if this is UFC 283 all over once again? I’ve currently pointed out the Shogun disappointment from the January 2023 occasion (and ideally will never ever discuss it once again after this week), however do not forget that night likewise ended with precious champs Glover Teixeira and Deiveson Figueiredo losing their champions in humbling style. To state those frustrations cast a pall over that program would be an understatement. Can Rio take another hit like that? The city will constantly invite the UFC with open arms, however it will be a more difficult sell in the future if Pantoja’s neglected title battle ends in a loss and if Martinez spoils Aldo’s return. Anthony Smith suppressing Vitor Petrino? Potieria rubbing another win in the fans’ faces? Paul Craig handing Caio Borralho his very first UFC loss? It’s all in play. A variety of Brazilian stars were currently not able to complete on this card thanks to Dana White and co. stacking UFC 299 and UFC 300, so fans in this MMA hotbed are most likely currently feeling a little cold. If they do not see a couple of favorites get their hand raised, White might wish to wait a number of years before returning. Heck: I’m sure individuals understand where I’m going here, and you would be. As typical, these concerns normally boil down to, “Where is the who-is-more-for-real battle on the card?” And for me, it’s the light-weight bout in between 26-year-old up-and-comers Elves Brener and Myktybek Orolbai. Lightweights, am I? This battle definitely guidelines. Both of these guys have remarkable upside, and they are completing devices. Brener had a strong case for MMA Fighting’s 2023 Rookie of the Year award after going 3-0 in 2023. He began with a huge upset of Zubaira Tukhugov at UFC 284 in his octagon launching, then included 2 huge knockouts versus Kaynan Kruschewsky and– in an extremely outstanding win– Guram Kutateladze. This guy is actually excellent, however he will get a big-time test versus a guy the hardcore MMA fans have actually been awaiting to get his shot. Orolbai goes back to his favored weight class, however he has the capacity do damage at welterweight, as revealed by his short-notice UFC launching neck crank submission of Uros Medic. Orolbai has incredible grappling chops, however he likewise strikes like an outright truck, and there’s a mystique and aura about him that states, “He simply may be that guy.” We’ll definitely learn on Saturday in this exceptionally matched initial bout. Meshew: You desire a sleeper story? I’ll offer you a sleeper story. I’ll go so deep of a sleeper we’re talking Rip Van Winkle comatose here: Is Karolina Kowalkiewicz defending a title shot? “What?!” you state. “That’s outrageous!” Is it? Do you understand who presently has the longest winning streak in the UFC strawweight department (aside from Tatiana Suarez, whose streak has a four-year space in it)? That’s right, Kowalkiewicz! She’s connected with champ Zhang Weili at 4. And while no one is demanding her to a get a title shot, the truth of the matter is that Kowalkiewicz is a previous title opposition, a good name in the department, and someone needs to battle Zhang next. Suarez is the apparent next competitor at 115 pounds, however she is coming off another injury and banking on her to make it to any battle is a fool’s errand. Who else is in the discussion? Joanna Jedrzejczyk retired, Rose Namajunas leapt up in weight, and Zhang has actually currently beaten the majority of the other leading competitors. Mackenzie Dern might make good sense however she can’t appear to win battles when it counts, and the next fantastic hope, Loopy Godinez, simply lost. That leaves Virna Jandiroba as the only other genuine choice, and if something occurs to her– it’s crazy however real– Kowalkiewicz on 5 wins is unexpectedly a really feasible alternative.
UFC 301 roundtable: Is Alexandre Pantoja ripe for an upset?
