On April 2, Montenegro held a landmark governmental run-off that saw 36-year-old previous Economy Minister Jakov Milatovic state triumph versus longstanding incumbent Milo Djukanovic.
Djukanovic’s ousting from power raised crucial concerns about the future instructions of the little Balkan nation and its dedication to a pro-Western course.
Sixty-one-year-old Djukanovic was a component of Montenegro’s politics for more than 3 years. An economic expert by training, he initially ended up being Montenegro’s prime minister back in early 1991 at the young age of 29. Ever since, he often stayed at the helm of Montenegro, rotating in between acting as prime minister and president. Even throughout the short durations he was formally out of federal government, there had actually been little doubt, both in Montenegro and abroad, that Djukanovic kept control over the nation’s affairs.
Djukanovic’s early political profession was filled with debate. When he initially got in the political scene in the early 1990s, he was a close ally of Serbia’s Slobodan Milošević and was right by his side when he started bloody wars of aggressiveness versus Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. In 1991-92, Djukanovic’s cabinet actively supported the months-long siege of Dubrovnik which ravaged the historic seaside city and declared lots of civilian lives. In the spring of 1992, at the start of the Bosnian war, Montenegrin authorities apprehended more than 60 mainly Bosniak refugees in the western seaside town of Herceg Novi and handed them over to Bosnian Serb soldiers. Just a few made it through. Many Montenegrin soldiers and volunteers went on to take part in atrocities in Bosnia. All this happened under Djukanovic’s management.
In the late-1990s, nevertheless, the Montenegrin leader understood that the tide was turning versus Milošević and quickly turned his back on the Serbian leader. He distanced himself from policies supported by Milošević, dropped pro-Serb talking points, accepted Montenegrin nationalism and gradually transformed himself as an independently-minded, pro-Western reformer.
Djukanovic led his nation out of the Serbia-Montenegro Union in 2006 with a referendum and made making sure the freshly independent country’s accession to leading Western organizations his political top priority.
Montenegro formally made an application for European Union subscription in 2008 and accession talks began in 2012. With 33 chapters opened and 3 conditionally closed, the nation has actually gone the outermost in the European combination procedure amongst the staying post-Yugoslav states that are still not part of the union. Montenegro likewise signed up with NATO in June 2017.
For many years, Djukanovic’s early days as a Milošević ally have actually mainly been forgotten and his guideline in Montenegro became viewed as a favorable one directed by a pro-European vision.
And to his credit, he did put Montenegro on the course to ending up being a tranquil, thriving and well-integrated European country. He constructed positive ties with all of Montenegro’s neighbours and identified Kosovo’s self-reliance in 2008. Ethnic minorities in Montenegro, consisting of Bosniaks and Albanians, have actually mostly been content with the rights they have actually been offered under his guideline. He likewise authorized Montenegro paying payment to the loved ones of Bosniak refugees it deported in 1992. In 2021, Montenegro’s parliament embraced a resolution condemning the Srebrenica genocide and prohibiting its rejection.
Obviously, Djukanovic’s time in power has actually not been completely without debate. He has actually consistently been implicated of corruption and dealt with criticism for his supposed links to organised criminal offense. He was included in the Pandora Papers and dealt with accusations of cash laundering. He has actually likewise been criticised in your home and abroad for his attacks on independent reporters.
As the leader who made Montenegro’s self-reliance possible, entered it into NATO and put it on a direct course to complete EU subscription, Djukanovic’s presidency appeared as protected as can be till extremely just recently.
Things began to alter for the skilled political leader in August 2020.
At the end of an increasingly battled parliamentary election, his Democratic Party of Socialists of Montenegro (DPS) got the most votes however stopped working to protect a big sufficient bulk to form a federal government by itself. Dritan Abazović, a young populist hellbent on loosening up Djukanovic’s grip on Montenegrin politics, became kingmaker and formed alliances with pro-Serbian and pro-Russian political portions to keep DPS out of federal government. After a short stint as deputy prime minister in Zdravko Krivokapić’s federal government, Abazović ended up being prime minister in April 2022.
As the prime minister of a broad union of nominally pro-European however in truth pro-Serbian celebrations, Abazović guaranteed to take on corruption, execute reforms that would accelerate Montenegro’s accession to the EU, and pursue policies to guarantee excellent relations with all of the nation’s neighbours. Regardless of his stated reformist and pro-European program, nevertheless, numerous in Montenegro saw Abazović as serving no other function than cultivating the conditions for the ousting of the long-lasting president– to the advantage of Serbia and Russia.
And quickly they were shown.
As Montenegro went to governmental elections in a state of political chaos with Abazović himself suffering a vote of no self-confidence in August 2022, Djukanovic lastly lost his grip on power.
In the preliminary of the election, Djukanovic got 35.3 percent of the vote, while his government-supported competing Milatovic, who campaigned on a pledge to enhance Montenegro’s ties with both Europe and Serbia, got 29.2 percent. In last week’s run-off, all the anti-Djukanovic forces in the nation– consisting of those working to guide it away from Europe and closer to Serbia and Russia– unified behind his competitor and brought him to the presidency.
Milatović’s definite success marked the most likely end of Djukanovic’s long and impactful political profession. Parliamentary elections are set up for June this year however the veteran political leader is extremely not likely to be able to protect another resurgence.
What occurs next in Montenegro undergoes much speculation in the Balkans and beyond. Whether Djukanovic will object to the next elections or not stays unsure. More most importantly, there are crucial concerns about the instructions in which Milatović will take the little however tactically crucial Balkan country of 600,000.
As a financial expert who studied in the United States and holds a master’s degree from Oxford University, Milatović no doubt has experience in the West. In his triumph speech, he made a promise to make the nation a complete member of the EU in 5 years. He likewise guaranteed a brand-new chapter in relations with all of Montenegro’s neighbours.
Notably, nevertheless, the president-elect stopped working to point out the brand-new administration’s ongoing dedication to NATO. He did little to assure those stressed about the impact the pro-Serbian and pro-Russian forces that brought him to power might have over his presidency.
Prior to his ouster, Djukanovic had actually alerted that Serbia is looking for to develop a “Serbian world” where it would put in control over all Balkan states with historical links to Serbia, consisting of Montenegro.
With Serb nationalists commemorating Djukanovic’s ousting throughout the Balkans and Milatović stating his aspiration to enhance ties with Serbia, it appears, a minimum of in the meantime, that the modification in management in Montenegro will assist Belgrade’s aspirations for local hegemony. It was informing that Milatović’s fans commemorated his triumph by waving Serbian flags.
Obviously, only time will inform whether Milatović will do what is anticipated of him and bring his nation closer to Serbia. For now, it appears there is more factor than ever before to fret about Montenegro’s dedication to the West and the stability of its area.
The views revealed in this post are the author’s own and do not always show Al Jazeera’s editorial position.