So, I hear there’s a World Cup starting this week … It is! Every four years the best men’s teams on the planet gather to see who will be crowned world champions. This year’s tournament will be co-hosted by frenemies Canada, Mexico and the United States in 16 cities as different as Vancouver, Kansas City and Guadalajara. The 48 teams are initially divided into [does arithmetic] 12 four-team groups with each team playing the others in the group once. The top two from each group, along with the eight best third-placed teams – 32 in total – will advance to the knockout stages. Matches from that point on are single-elimination – lose and you’re out. If scores are level at the end of extra-time, the match is decided by a penalty shootout.
The final will be on 19 July in “New York” (actually New Jersey, referred to by Fifa as New York/New Jersey), after 104 matches across three countries. The opening match of the tournament will take place this Thursday – 11 June – at the Estadio Azteca, where co-hosts Mexico will play South Africa.
Wait? There are 48 teams? I thought there were only 32? That was the case in the last World Cup, and the few that preceded that one (there were only 13 teams in the first tournament, in 1930). Cynics would say soccer’s governing body, Fifa, increased the field to boost revenue from the tournament – the last World Cup in 2022 generated around $7.5bn. But Fifa points to the fact that income from the tournament goes towards developing the sport’s grassroots and the expanded field means there is a chance for plucky underdogs with little chance of winning – such as Jordan, Curaçao and England – to compete with the big boys.
Fifa sounds like my kind of organization: helping out the little guy, putting on a show for the whole world to enjoy. It must be beloved by fans? Wellllllllllll … not universally, no. Fifa has come under heavy criticism for the eye-watering ticket prices for matches this summer – a Guardian analysis in December found the cheapest for this year’s final are nearly 10 times more expensive than they were for the 2022 tournament. Fifa also collect 30% in fees for ticket sales on its resale site. Then there’s Fifa president Gianni Infantino’s decision to award a peace prize to Donald Trump. Yep, the Donald Trump who is currently embroiled in a war with Iran and threatened to make one of the tournament’s co-hosts a 51st state of the US.
High ticket prices, wars and questionable prizes? Why should I watch at all? Because this is a gathering of some of the finest athletes in the world fighting it out for one of the most coveted prizes in sports. There will be brilliant goals, shocking results (eventual champions Argentina lost to lowly Saudi Arabia in their opening match at the last World Cup), heartbreak for the losers and unbridled joy for the champions.
And who will those champions be? Spain are aiming to follow up the European title they won in 2024 with the World Cup this time around (they also won the tournament in 2010). They have excellent young players, excellent veterans and an excellent coach: other than that they’re a pushover. It’s much the same story with France, who reached the final in 2022. The reigning champions, Argentina, will be contenders but are not as strong as they were four years ago and their old rivals England are among the betting favorites although that’s much to do with their often delusional fans putting money on them. Brazil and Germany have nine titles between them and shouldn’t be counted out even though neither team are at their peak.
If you want to have a go at making your own predictions, we recommend using our Bracketology game.
Zohran Mamdani plays the Guardian’s Bracketology to predict World Cup winner – video What about dark horses? No lesser a source than New York City mayor/democratic socialist hunk Zohran Mamdani told the Guardian that Morocco will win the tournament. If they do so they would be the first African team to lift the trophy and they have some pedigree – they made the semi-finals in 2022. Norway, fresh off beating the brakes off the rest of the world at this year’s Winter Olympics, have the formidable goalscorer Erling Haaland at their disposal. Mexico, Canada and the US should all make it out of the group stages but will probably hope for a place in the quarter-finals at best.
Who are the players to watch? The most famous players at the tournament will be Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi although – at 41 and 38 respectively – they are not the best. Ousmane Dembélé, fresh off helping his club, Paris St-Germain, to the Champions League title is generally acknowledged as the best player in the world, although Spain’s 18-year-old winger Lamine Yamal is the most thrilling. Haaland, England’s Harry Kane and France’s Kylian Mbappé are ruthless goalscorers while Vitinha’s wile and craft in Portugal’s midfield has won him admirers among his fellow players.
And where can I see all these players? If you can’t get yourself to one of the 16 stadiums hosting matches (two in Canada, three in Mexico and 11 in the US) then you can settle into your couch and watch the whole thing on TV. In the US, Fox (English) and Telemundo (Spanish) are the broadcasters, in Australia you can watch every match live on SBS and SBS Viceland, TSN and CTV will have the matches in English in Canada, while coverage in French will be on RDS. In the UK, the BBC and ITV will share duties during the tournament. Of course, if you want the best coverage there will be live coverage of every match on the Guardian website.
16 stadiums and three countries sounds a lot. How far will fans and teams have to travel? Canada, Mexico and the US’s bid for the tournament emphasized that this would be a World Cup shared between the three countries. But the US has actually ended up with 78 of the matches, with Canada and Mexico getting 13 each, and every game from the quarter-finals onwards will be hosted by the Americans. The 2026 bid book also spoke about the co-hosts’ commitment to the environment, but this World Cup will involve a lot of travel. If they reach the final, most teams (and their diehard fans) will have travelled more than 8,000km.
And how much will the players win for all this? Fifa is paying out $727m in prize money for the tournament, which is obviously a lot. But it’s worth noting that the organization’s vice-president, Victor Montagliani, expects this World Cup to gross $13bn. The winners alone will get $50m, or enough for two tickets to the 2030 World Cup final.