Meta ad costs climb sharply every November, and marketing platform Billo says the brands that test creative in August end up paying less for better results.
Black Friday and Cyber Monday are still more than three months away, but according to marketing platform Billo, the brands that win that shopping period are already testing their ad creative now.
Billo, which connects brands with creators to produce short-form video ads for platforms including TikTok, Meta and YouTube, says its own client data shows Meta ad competition rising sharply between August and the November peak, alongside a corresponding increase in the cost to reach 1,000 people. The company frames this as a reason to prepare early rather than treating Black Friday as a fourth-quarter problem.
“Everyone treats Black Friday as a fourth-quarter problem, so everyone ends up competing for the same ad space at the same time,” said Donatas Smailys, co-founder and CEO of Billo. “Brands that create their ads early and test them in August get better results than brands that wait until October or November. By the time November comes, the brands that tested early already know what works, while the brands that waited are launching untested ads during the most expensive weeks of the year.”
The pattern Billo describes lines up with what independent ad-industry trackers have found in past years. Data from Meta ad benchmarking firms including Sovran and Pace Ads shows CPMs, the cost to reach 1,000 people, typically climbing from September through October before peaking during Black Friday week, with several trackers reporting increases in the range of 20 to 65% depending on the year and category. The exact figures shift year to year and by industry, but the underlying seasonal pattern, rising competition and cost heading into November, is consistent across sources.
Why August, specifically
Smailys says the value of starting in August isn’t just about beating the crowd, it’s about having enough runway to actually learn what works before the expensive weeks arrive.
“You don’t need a media budget to find out if an ad works,” he said. “In August, we tell our clients to post a few short variants organically, each with a different hook and a different creator. A small, specific audience responds within days, and that tells you which version actually lands. The trick is picking the right audience for that test: people who already care about the product. Once you know what they respond to, you know exactly what to put the budget behind in November.”
The approach Billo recommends is straightforward. Brands typically produce three to five short variants per product, each testing a different angle, a different opening line, a different creator, or a different pain point. Whichever variants perform best organically become the ads that get paid budget behind them once the fourth quarter begins.
What this means for smaller advertisers
For SME owners without large marketing budgets, the appeal of this approach is that it doesn’t require paid spend to get useful signal. Posting a handful of organic variants and watching how a small, relevant audience responds is a low-cost way to make an informed decision before the auction gets expensive.
It’s worth noting that the specific percentage figures Billo cites come from its own client base rather than a broader market-wide dataset, so they’re best treated as one platform’s observed trend rather than a universal number every business will experience. The broader direction, however, that Meta advertising becomes more competitive and costlier heading into Black Friday, is well supported elsewhere in the industry. For brands planning Q4 spend, the practical takeaway is less about the exact percentage and more about the timing: test early, commit budget once you know what’s working.
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