Hawthorn need to beat West Coast by at least 90 points to claim third spot on the AFL ladder after Brisbane’s thumping win over Collingwood.
Equal on points with Hawthorn heading into the final round of the season, the Lions held a 2.2 per cent gap on the fourth-placed Hawks before Friday night’s clash and needed a big win over the Magpies to all but lock away third.
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They did just that, decimating Collingwood by 63 points to jump from 119.5 per cent to 121.7 — more than four per cent clear of the Hawks on 117.3.
It means Hawthorn, depending on how many points they concede against West Coast on Sunday, will need to win by nearly a three-figure margin to jump up from fourth an avoid the dreaded trip to Perth to face ladder leaders Fremantle in a qualifying final.
“Everything going to script now for Brisbane and, with every goal, it takes Hawthorn completely out of it, and they guarantee a qualifying final in Sydney against a depleted Sydney Swans,” James Brayshaw said on Channel 7.
“It’s exactly what they came here wanting to achieve.”
Regardless of results for the rest of the weekend, the Dockers cannot move from first, and Sydney, crucially, can’t be dislodged from second.
The Swans have been among the premiership favourites all year until the alleged hotel scandal that rocked their season on Monday morning.
Isaac Heeney, Chad Warner, Nick Blakey, James Jordan and Riley Bice have all been suspended for the rest of the year for their involvement in the alleged incident, which remains under investigation by Victoria Police.
That makes finishing third on the ladder all the more coveted, given whoever makes the trip to Sydney will be facing a decimated Swans team missing their best player in Heeney, two of their stars in Warner and Blakey, and best-23 role-players Jordan and Bice.
The Lions threatened to blow the margin out beyond 100 points and make a certainty of third spot, but left the door ever so slightly ajar for Hawthorn after conceding seven last-quarter goals.
Brisbane coach Chris Fagan cut a frustrated figure on the sidelines as the Magpies kicked six unanswered in the middle part of the quarter.
The two-time reigning premiers steadied to bang through a few late ones, including Logan Morris’s eighth from the boundary line, but will rue taking the foot off the pedal if Hawthorn pull off a last-minute miracle in Perth on Sunday night.
The Lions are also sweating on key position defender Ty Gallop, who will be scrutinised by the match review officer for a dangerous tackle on Charlie West.
In his first game back from a three-game suspension for another indiscretion, Gallop dumped Collingwood youngster Charlie West with a sling tackle in the third quarter.
It will help Gallop’s case that he appeared to let go of the tackle before falling to the ground, and that West got up to take his kick and didn’t suffer a concussion.
Meantime, Collingwood veteran Scott Pendlebury came off early in the game with a knee bursa.
The 38-year-old will require scans to rule out any related hamstring problem, which can often occur with bursas, and could end his season if found.
If he hasn’t suffered any hamstring damage, Pendlebury could yet be fit for Collingwood’s wildcard final in a best-case scenario.