NEW YORK (Reuters) – Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders may be surging in the polls ahead of Super Tuesday, but some on Wall Street have made their own conclusions on what November will bring: four more years of President Donald Trump.
Ninety-five percent of participants in a Deutsche Bank study of financiers, financial experts and other market individuals launched earlier this month said Trump, a Republican politician, was either “very most likely” or “somewhat likely” to win the general election.
Those results contrast with some wider recent surveys mentioned on RealClearPolitics, which show any Democrat beating Trump in a presidential contest, although top competitors have a bigger lead. The most recent Reuters/Ipsos poll, carried out Feb. 19-25, revealed Sanders with a 7 percentage-point lead over Trump in a theoretical basic election matchup.
The sharp inequality in expectations could stoke market volatility if Wall Streeters are incorrect and a Democrat emerges victorious – especially if that winner is Sanders, whose guarantees to break up huge banks, take on drug companies and essentially abolish private insurance in favor of a single government-run plan have unnerved some financiers. Lots Of on Wall Street were unprepared for Trump’s win in 2016, which was followed by sharp swings in possession rates.
” As a financier, I look at this and state the market’s headache circumstance is that Bernie or Elizabeth Warren wins the election,” stated Phil Orlando, chief equity market strategist at Federated Investors, in New York City. “That’s not our base case … but it’s a concern,” he stated.
Warren’s policy propositions, like Sanders’, have a