The novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 is often compared to its close hereditary cousin SARS-CoV-1. And for great factor: The virus accountable for the early 2000 s SARS outbreak is, in lots of ways, the closest parallel to what we’re dealing with now. Researchers seek to it when studying for how long the new virus survives on surface areas and whether it makes good sense for us to wear masks It offers a guide for how the curve of cases and deaths might flex if we all do our part and stay at home. The contrast uses some hope: Social distancing and travel constraints helped squash the SARS outbreak in about a year.
But that sort of sweeping containment has actually begun to look far less possible. To predict the long-term course of Covid-19, a various analogy might be in order. What if the virus is more like a few of its lesser-known family members, like HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1? The names are not as familiar, but you have actually most likely met them in the past. These viruses cause the common cold. And while they’re less lethal than SARS or MERS, they’re peskier too; they come and go with the seasons, with human immunity waning in time It’s why we keep catching them, once again and again.
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A paper published Tuesday in Science by Harvard University public health scientists checks out that possibility, and what it would indicate for Covid-19’s spread in the long term. Their conclusions are somewhat grim. If SARS-CoV-2 follows in the steps of these cold bacteria, herd resistance will be slower to develop and hold. (Herd immunity happens when enough members of a population have either currently had an illness or been vaccinated against it, stopping the circulation of its transmission.) Till that takes place, outbreaks would be a routine fact of life. Combined with the virus’s higher s
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