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The coronavirus pandemic has drastically altered the planet since first appearing in late 2019, infecting more than 3 million and resulting in the deaths of at least 230,000 people. As some parts of the world ease stay-at-home and lockdown orders, a new report says the pandemic could last up to two years.
The report, put together by the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, notes the similarities between COVID-19 and influenza pandemics, including both having asymptomatic cases and the global population having “little to no pre-existing immunity,” which results in “worldwide susceptibility.”
Though there are differences between SARS-CoV-2 and influenza, the researchers gleaned from past pandemics that the length “will likely be 18 to 24 months, as herd immunity gradually develops in the human population.”
“This will take time, since limited serosurveillance data available to date suggest that a relatively small fraction of the population has been infected and infection rates likely vary substantially by geographic area,” the researchers added. “Given the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2, 60 [percent] to 70 [percent] of the population may need to be immune to reach a critical threshold of herd immunity to halt the pandemic.”
The researchers also warned that control measures and other factors could impact the length and duration of different waves of COVID-19 cases.
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