Near Oman’s mountain-crested capital of Muscat, an unusual act of violence recently shook a serene nation mainly bereft of even minor criminal offense.
Shooting sounded out, and shouts of “Oh God!” were heard on July 15 in Wadi Kabir, a district east of Muscat, as 3 shooters went into the Imam Ali Mosque.
Congregants were collected for a significant spiritual occasion for Shia Muslims. The occasion ended with 5 individuals eliminated– 4 Pakistani nationals and a police officer– and at least 30 others injured, according to Omani and Pakistani authorities.
In a nation understood for “extraordinary” spiritual tolerance and a long custom of coexistence, the genuine target may have been Oman’s stability, specifically offered its function as a local conciliator, state experts.
Not long after, ISIL (ISIS) declared duty for the attack– its very first of an operation in the Gulf country.
Professionals stated it is uncertain if the attack was in fact brought out by ISIL. More than a week after the attack, the group has actually provided no proof other than a video of the 3 declared bombers– apparently siblings– promising loyalty to ISIL’s leader.
With the area and world concentrated on Israel’s harsh war on Gaza, ISIL– whether it was really behind the attack– might be attempting to remain pertinent, increasing sectarian departments, specifically in locations where practically none exists, experts recommend.
Planting discord to divert
“It is clear that [ISIL] counts on a method of declaring obligation for attacks even when it had no real participation, with the goal of prompting mayhem and sectarian strife,” Faozi Algoidi, a research study fellow at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, informed Al Jazeera.
“By asserting duty for events that might initially be unexpected or socially encouraged, the organisation improves the sectarian and terrorist nature of these occasions, bringing the concern of sectarian dispute back to the leading edge.”
ISIL’s objective might be to reveal that the organisation is still active and efficient in striking anywhere, to stir worry and boost sectarian stress in locations of otherwise security and peace, like Oman, he included.
This might have been why the attack took place on the celebration of Ashura, amongst the holiest times of the year for Shia Muslims, according to Andreas Krieg, a teacher at King’s College London and CEO of MENA analytica, a MENA-focused political danger company.
“That’s precisely what [ISIL] wished to accomplish … polarise sectarian discussion and discourse in an extremely tolerant and inclusive nation, and likewise throughout the area,” Krieg informed Al Jazeera. “They were trying to find a renowned minute where they can have an effect.”
The attack likewise most likely took place at this time since armed groups view that the area’s intelligence companies are focused more on Israel’s continuous war in Gaza, state experts.
“This timing recommends a tactical option by [ISIL] to make use of viewed vulnerabilities,” Harley Lippman, a consultant at the USAID Partnership for Peace Fund, concentrated on Middle East peace efforts, informed Al Jazeera.
The attack in Oman follows comparable acts in Russia and Iran. In March, the group stated it lagged an attack that eliminated more than 140 individuals at an auditorium near Moscow, and in January it declared obligation for 2 surges in Kerman that eliminated almost 100.
The variety of operations declared by ISIL this year compared to in 2015 has actually doubled, even more showing a prejudice to divert attention in the area from the circumstance in Gaza, stated Algoidi.
Why Oman?
Beyond its stability, Oman might have been singled out for the attack due to its function as a regular local arbitrator, state experts.
In the dispute in Yemen, in specific, Oman has actually been attempting to bridge a space in between the Iran-aligned Houthi group and the Saudi-backed federal government. “The reality that the Omanis are attempting to develop cohesion, agreement in Yemen and attempting to fix the dispute is something that [ISIL] disagrees with,” stated Krieg. “They require dispute in Yemen to prosper.”
Oman’s ties with Iran might have likewise embittered the group. ISIL views Tehran as an “archenemy”, Krieg included.
An ISIL network existing in Oman is extremely not likely, Krieg stated, and the occurrence rather indicates the work of a cell with links to Yemen. The group’s cell structure suggests “only wolf” ISIL-linked groups can introduce operations even without subscription within ISIL itself, he discussed.
He thinks it is a single, separated occasion and not a revival of the group– a minimum of not in the Gulf area. “This can occur actually in any nation. It can occur in the UK,” stated Krieg.