Michelle Payne and Danny Russell
Updated November 3, 2026 — 1:21pm, first published October 27, 2026 — 11:58am
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It takes a special kind of horse to win a Melbourne Cup. It also takes a combination of good planning and good luck.
In our comprehensive runner-by-runner guide, 2015 Melbourne Cup winning-jockey Michelle Payne and The Age racing writer Danny Russell cast an eye over the field, taking into variables such as lead-up form, weights and barriers.
Point of Law rockets into Melbourne Cup favouritism after winning the Geelong Cup. Getty Images The horses are named in order of their saddle cloth numbers – from top weight down to bottom weight.
Ciaron Maher has seven runners, while Irish trainer Joseph O’Brien has five.
1. Sons And Lovers (GB)
Barrier: 3
6yoG (gelding) 57.5kg
Trainer: Joseph O’Brien. Jockey: Dylan Browne McMonagle
Career: 23: 6-2-6 Last start: Second of 11 G3 Kilternan Stakes Leopardstown
Michelle Payne says: The stable is very confident. He sounds like he’s thrived since he’s been here, and I think the barrier certainly brings him right into contention.
Russell says: A dual group 2 winner from Ireland who sounds more like a midday soapie than a racehorse. That being said, in our view he has more chance of winning an Emmy than the Melbourne Cup, considering he has to lug 57.5 kilograms to victory first-up in Australia.
2. Trustyourinstinct (IRE) Barrier: 18
7yoG 57kg
Trainer: Joseph O’Brien. Jockey: James McDonald
Career: 30: 9-7-4 Last start: 4th of 7 G1 Irish St Leger 2816m
Payne says: For me, he is the pick of Joseph O’Brien’s runners. The barrier is not ideal, but he can overcome that wide gate if we have a firm track. He won’t be as well suited if the rain comes.
Russell says: If you believe in the saying, ‘follow the money’, this is the horse for you. He’s owned by Irish billionaire JP McManus, who used to be a bookmaker. That’s a good lead right there. He is also a group 2 winner with a serious chance. Watch to see if McManus bets up big on Cup eve. Top five hope.
Robbie Dolan rides Knight’s Choice to a famous win in the 2024 Melbourne Cup. Getty 3. Knight’s Choice Barrier: 2
7yoG 56.5kg
Trainer: John Symons and Sheila Laxon. Jockey: Robbie Dolan
Career: 31: 6-3-3 Last start: 14th of 18 G1 Caulfield Cup 2400m
Payne says: Needs a firm track. But from a good barrier, who knows if the 2024 winner can cause another upset? He is going well enough if you look at his Caulfield run two starts back in the Herbert Power.
Russell says: The shock 2024 winner was robbed of the chance to defend his crown in 2025 because of the equine equivalent of a lockdown. Not COVID-19, but strangles – a contagious bacterial disease – that was detected at Macedon Lodge on the eve of last year’s spring. Great run in the Herbert Power two starts back, might have copped interference in Caulfield Cup. Can’t win.
4. Middle Earth (GB) Barrier: 1
7yoG 56.5kg
Trainer: Ciaron Maher. Jockey: Mark Zahra
Career: 26: 6-2-3 Last start: Eighth of 12 G1 Cox Plate 2040m
Payne says: He sounds like he is the best chance of the Ciaron Maher runners. Ran third last year and is going just as well. A bit more weight, but drawn barrier one, proven at two miles and if he gets luck in running, he’ll figure in the finish.
Russell says: If this galloper’s name has been pl
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